Just Foreign Policy News
September 14, 2010
Why Peaceniks Should Care About the Afghanistan Study Group Report
Experts who crafted the Afghanistan Study Group report have a strategy to move Washington towards ending the war. If their recommendations are followed, fewer Americans and Afghans will be killed.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert – naiman/why – peaceniks – should – care_b_712333.html
The report, which is short and accessible, can be found here:
http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/
Bacevich: Washington Rules
Andrew Bacevich’s book, "Washington Rules: America’s Path to Permanent War," is a call for Americans to reject the Washington consensus for permanent war.
September 24th: JFP "Virtual Brown Bag" with Andrew Bacevich
https://www.justforeignpolicy.org/bacevichtalk
Get the book
https://www.justforeignpolicy.org/buywashingtonrules
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Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) The military trial of Bil’in protest organizer Abdallah Abu Rahmah will renew Wednesday with the sentencing phase, reports Jesse Bacon for Jewish Voice for Peace. The prosecution is expected to ask for a sentence exceeding two years imprisonment. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the EU, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, and the Spanish Parliament have condemned Abu Rahmah’s conviction for organizing "illegal demonstrations" against the separation barrier. [For more background, see "’Palestinian Gandhi’ Convicted for Protesting; U.S. Silent," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/palestinian-gandhi-convic_b_696884.html – JFP]
2) Pacifica Radio is negotiating with Al Jazeera to put Al Jazeera’s news service on its five stations, including WPFW in Washington, the Washington Post reports. If an agreement is reached, Pacifica would become the biggest American broadcaster to air Al Jazeera. Pacifica was founded by pacifists and conscientious objectors; its mission statement declares it will use its assets "to engage in any activity that shall contribute to a lasting understanding between nations and between the individuals of all nations, races, creeds and colors [and] to gather and disseminate information on the causes of conflict between any and all of such groups."
3) Indian authorities expanded a strict curfew across Kashmir on Tuesday after bloody protests erupted there a day earlier, fueled partly by a report of Koran desecration in the US, the New York Times reports. Authorities said that at least 19 people had been killed on Monday. The Monday violence was ignited by a report on Iranian Press TV allegedly showing a protester in the US tearing pages out of a Koran. Kashmir has seen almost daily demonstrations since June, with angry crowds defying curfews to throw stones or voice their anger over heavy-handed Indian rule in the region.
4) The Israeli army has admitted that three Palestinian men it killed in Gaza on Sunday were civilians, and not terrorists, as previously claimed, the BBC reports. Separately, a report published by Israeli human rights group B’Tselem found Israeli soldiers who kill Palestinians are rarely punished. The B’Tselem report said the military investigated only 22 of 148 cases submitted by the group; no criminal charges were brought in any of the cases, which involved the killing of 288 Palestinian civilians between 2006 and 2009.
5) A report by the Project on Government Oversight says the Energy Department is holding 324 metric tons of bomb-grade uranium at the same time the Obama administration is urging nations to reduce or eliminate their stores of the material, the Los Angeles Times reports. POGO wants the US to speed efforts to shrink the stockpile. A spokesman for Republican staff of the House Armed Services Committee said they wanted to know why existing highly enriched uranium surpluses were being "downblended" at a slower than expected rate.
Iran
6) In a letter to the Washington Post responding to an editorial, Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association notes that UN inspectors would indeed detect an Iranian push to acquire a nuclear weapon. Iran’s low-enriched uranium is still under safeguards. Cameras provide real-time monitoring, seals indicate any tampering, and unannounced visits by inspectors throughout the year provide a thorough accounting of the material. But in the event of a military strike against Iran, international scrutiny would decrease, and uncertainties about Iran’s capabilities would increase.
Israel/Palestine
7) President Obama’s public urging of Israel to extend its partial moratorium on settlement expansion in the West Bank after Sept. 26 surprised some administration officials, because the US tries to avoid publicly pressing Israel, the New York Times reports.
Iraq
8) The six US "advisory" brigades that remain in Iraq retain all the weapons and forces of a combat brigade, the New York Times reports. Their rules of engagement allow them to "come to the aid of Iraqi forces," which is what happened recently when 25 US "advising and assisting" soldiers were involved in "close ground combat."
Honduras
9) The International Monetary Fund on Friday offered Honduras a stand-by agreement of $196 million, the first since last year’s coup, Reuters reports. The agreement will clear the way for $200 million from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank.
Venezuela
10) President Chavez’ popularity is rising ahead of Venezuela’s Sept. 26 parliamentary elections, Reuters reports. A poll last month by the well-respected IVAD polling firm, consulted by both the government and opposition, said 54.3 percent would vote Socialist and 45.7 percent for the opposition.
11) Mainstream international reporting on Venezuela’s economy makes pre-war reporting on Iraq look fair and balanced in comparison, writes Mark Weisbrot in the Guardian. In May, the UN Commission on Latin America found that Venezuela had reduced inequality by more than any other country in Latin America from 2002 to 2008, ending up with the most equal income distribution in the region. This has yet to be mentioned by the major international press.
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Israel tries to lock up Abu Rahmah for two years for disturbing the "peace"
Jesse Bacon, The Only Democracy (Jewish Voice for Peace), September 14th, 2010
http://theonlydemocracy.org/2010/09/israel-tries-to-lock-up-abu-rahmah-for-two-years-for-disturbing-the-peace/
The trial of Bil’in protest organizer, Abdallah Abu Rahmah will renew this Wednesday, after his conviction of incitement and organizing illegal demonstrations was harshly criticized by the EU, the Spanish Parliament and human rights organizations.
Abdallah Abu Rahmah’s trial will resume on Wednesday, as it will enter the sentencing phase, in which the prosecution will argue its case for a harsh sentencing, and is expected to ask for a sentence exceeding two years imprisonment. The defense will argue Abu Rahmah had already been devoid of his freedom for too long, and should be released immediately.
Abu Rahmah, the coordinator of the Bil’in Popular Committee Against the Wall and Settlements, was arrested last year by soldiers who raided his home at the middle of the night and was subsequently indicted before an Israeli military court on unsubstantiated charges that included stone-throwing and arms possession. Abu Rahmah was cleared of both the stone-throwing and arms possession charges, but convicted of organizing illegal demonstrations and incitement. 9 months after his arrest, Abu Rahmah is still kept on remand.
An exemplary case of the way the Israeli military legal system in the West Bank exists for the purpose of silencing of legitimate political dissent, Abu Rahmah’s conviction was subject to harsh international criticism. The EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, expressed her deep concern "that the possible imprisonment of Mr Abu Rahma is intended to prevent him and other Palestinians from exercising their legitimate right to protest[…]", after EU diplomats attended all hearings in Abu Rahmah’s case. Ashton’s statement was followed by one from the Spanish Parliament.
Renowned South African human right activist, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, called on Israel to overturn Abu Rahmah’s conviction on behalf of the Elders, a group of international public figures noted as elder statesmen, peace activists, and human rights advocates, brought together by Nelson Mandela. Members of the Elders, including Tutu, have met with Abu Rahmah on their visit to Bil’in prior to his arrest.
International human rights organizations Amnesty International condemned Abu Rahmah’s conviction as an assault on the right to freedom of expression. Human Rights Watch denounced the conviction, pronouncing the whole process "an unfair trial".
Abu Rahmah, the coordinator of the Bil’in Popular Committee Against the Wall and Settlements, was acquitted of two out of the four charges brought against him in the indictment – stone-throwing and a ridiculous and vindictive arms possession charge. According to the indictment, Abu Rahmah collected used tear-gas projectiles and bullet cases shot at demonstrators, with the intention of exhibiting them to show the violence used against demonstrators. This absurd charge is a clear example of how eager the military prosecution is to use legal procedures as a tool to silence and smear unarmed dissent.
The court did, however, find Abu Rahmah guilty of two of the most draconian anti-free speech articles in military legislation: incitement, and organizing and participating in illegal demonstrations. It did so based only on testimonies of minors who were arrested in the middle of the night and denied their right to legal counsel, and despite acknowledging significant ills in their questioning.
The court was also undeterred by the fact that the prosecution failed to provide any concrete evidence implicating Abu Rahmah in any way, despite the fact that all demonstrations in Bil’in are systematically filmed by the army.
Under military law, incitement is defined as "The attempt, verbally or otherwise, to influence public opinion in the Area in a way that may disturb the public peace or public order" (section 7(a) of the Order Concerning Prohibition of Activities of Incitement and Hostile Propaganda (no.101), 1967), and carries a 10 years maximal sentence.
2) Pacifica Radio in talks to air Al Jazeera in major U.S. markets
Paul Farhi, Washington Post, Thursday, September 9, 2010; C03
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/08/AR2010090806818.html
Pacifica Radio, the nonprofit organization that runs the nation’s oldest public-radio network, is in talks with the Al Jazeera Network to put the Persian Gulf-based news service on its five stations, including WPFW-FM in Washington.
If an agreement is reached, Pacifica would become the biggest American broadcaster to air Al Jazeera, whose news reports have at times drawn criticism from Western governments, including the Bush administration during the early days of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Al Jazeera is perhaps best known for being the first network to broadcast video communiques from Osama bin Laden after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Pacifica’s parent organization, the Pacifica Foundation in Berkeley, Calif., has been negotiating with Doha-based Al Jazeera to carry the audio portion of its English-language TV channel, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Closing a deal with Pacifica, which is known for its liberal-leaning programming, would be a boost for Al Jazeera. The network, owned by the emir of the Persian Gulf state of Qatar, has struggled to gain a foothold in the American market. After four years of operation, Al Jazeera English can be seen only in the Washington area and two other cities, Burlington, Vt., and Toledo, Ohio.
[…] In addition to WPFW in Washington, Pacifica operates stations in New York, Los Angeles, Houston and Berkeley. Some of its news and commentary programs, such as "Democracy Now!," are carried on about 100 affiliated stations.
Pacifica was founded in 1947 by pacifists and conscientious objectors. Its mission statement declares that it will use its radio assets "to engage in any activity that shall contribute to a lasting understanding between nations and between the individuals of all nations, races, creeds and colors [and] to gather and disseminate information on the causes of conflict between any and all of such groups."
3) Tensions High Across Kashmir After Koran Protests
Jim Yardley, New York Times, September 14, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/world/asia/15kashmir.html
New Delhi – The authorities expanded a strict curfew across Kashmir on Tuesday and sent more security officers across the restive Himalayan region after bloody protests erupted there a day earlier, fueled partly by a report of Koran desecration in the United States.
The bloodshed, which rippled across different districts in the region, deepened the crisis that has steadily worsened in Kashmir since protests against Indian rule began in June. In New Delhi, the Indian government called for leaders of the country’s major political parties to meet on Wednesday and seek consensus on how to quell the unrest and stabilize Kashmir, a disputed region claimed by both Pakistan and India.
The authorities said that at least 18 people and one security officer had been killed on Monday, with more than 70 people injured, as separatist protesters clashed with Indian paramilitary officers. Minor clashes also took place on Tuesday but police reported a tense calm late in the afternoon. Air links to Srinagar, the state’s summer capital, were suspended for three days.
The Monday violence was ignited by a report on an Iranian state television channel, Press TV, allegedly showing a protester in the United States tearing pages out of a Koran. One of the most violent encounters happened in the village of Tangmarg, where witnesses said more than 20,000 protesters threw stones at Christian missionary school, the Tyndale-Biscoe and Mallinson School, and then later burned it to the ground.
Parwez Samuel Kaul, the principal and director of the school, which has four campuses in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, said an angry crowd had approached the school on Monday morning and tossed stones, then returned twice more and set fire to the wooden structure.
[…] The school had been closed for months because of government curfews and was empty except for a handful of employees who fled once the blaze started. Mr. Kaul said that most of the school’s faculty and 500 students were Muslims.
[…] "They were chanting ‘America, Down, Down,"’ said Nissar Hurra, the inspector in charge of the police station in Tangmarg.
[…] Kashmir has seen almost daily Muslim demonstrations since June, with angry crowds defying curfews to throw stones or voice their anger over heavy-handed Indian rule in the region. Protesters range from separatists who want Kashmiri independence to others demanding that India’s central government remove thousands of Indian paramilitary troops, release political prisoners and lift laws that grant immunity to security officers. Before Monday, at least 73 people had been killed in the demonstrations, in which stone-throwing protesters often face off against police officers firing live ammunition.
[…] But S. S. Kapur, chief secretary of the Jammu and Kashmir State government, criticized the Iranian broadcast for inflaming the already seething region and said officials had banned the channel. Press TV later confirmed on its Web site that local cable operators in Kashmir had restricted its broadcasts.
[…] In New Delhi on Monday , the United States ambassador, Timothy J. Roemer, cited news reports that "one misguided individual" had torn pages out of a Koran in the United States and said any such desecration would be "an abhorrent act." He also expressed dismay over the reported attacks against churches in Kashmir and the Punjab region. [Other press reports appear to suggest that the "one misguided individual" was Randall Terry of Operation Rescue – JFP.] […] In New Delhi, top Indian officials convened to weigh proposals to reduce the powers of the armed forces and ease tight security measures in some districts of the region as steps to defuse the crisis. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh offered a conciliatory message, promising talks with groups that reject violence.
4) Israeli army admits three killed Gazans were civilians
14 September 2010 Last updated at 13:13 ET
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11301624
The Israeli army has admitted that three Palestinian men it killed in Gaza on Sunday were civilians, and not terrorists, as previously claimed.
Brig Gen Ayal Eisenberg said one of the men had picked up a grenade launcher abandoned in a field, and Israeli troops mistakenly opened fire, thinking they were about to come under attack.
Among those killed were a 91-year-old farm worker and his grandson, aged 17.
Rocket fire from Gaza has increased in the past week. No casualties resulted.
[…] Sunday’s killings took place near the town of Beit Hanoun in Gaza after Israeli tanks fired across the border at the three victims, witnesses had said.
Two of those killed were named as Ibrahim Abu Saeed and his grandson Husam. The third victim, a 20-year-old man, has not been named.
At the time, Israeli army radio described the men as "terrorists", but Gen Ayal Eisenberg now says the soldiers made a mistake.
"The civilians killed by our soldiers’ fire… were not involved in any terrorist operation," he told army radio.
[…] Separately, a report published by an Israeli human rights group found that Israeli soldiers who kill Palestinians were rarely punished.
The B’Tselem report released on Tuesday said that the military investigated only 22 of 148 cases submitted by the group.
No criminal charges were brought in any of the cases, which involved the killing of 288 Palestinian civilians between 2006 and 2009, it said.
[…]
5) U.S. holding 324 metric tons of bomb-grade uranium, report says
The Obama administration, which is urging other nations to reduce their stores of the material, should declare part of the U.S. inventory surplus, a watchdog group says.
Ralph Vartabedian, Los Angeles Times, September 14, 2010
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-uranium-20100914,0,7187215.story
The Energy Department is holding 324 metric tons of bomb-grade uranium at the same time the Obama administration is urging nations to reduce or eliminate their stores of the material, according to a report to be released Tuesday by the nuclear watchdog group Project on Government Oversight.
The Washington-based group wants the administration to declare a portion of the U.S. inventory of highly enriched uranium as surplus and increase the amount that is blended down each year into commercial reactor fuel.
The inventory began to swell years ago after the U.S. agreed to a series of nuclear arms accords resulting in the decommissioning of thousands of nuclear warheads. The U.S. stopped making highly enriched uranium after the end of the Cold War.
The Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration, or NNSA, defended the rate at which it is blending the uranium into commercial fuel, noting the difficulty and cost of the process. It did not comment on the size of the surplus, which is classified.
The NNSA also said that it was not sending out a contradictory message by maintaining the surplus. It said that its facilities are secure from terrorists and that the agency provides technical assistance to other nations when they give up their bomb materials.
But the issue is drawing fresh scrutiny from nuclear nonproliferation groups and Congress.
"The U.S. would be on higher moral ground if we clearly articulated that we are working to minimize our use of highly enriched uranium," said Joan Rohlfing, president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonpartisan group. "It should be the norm that every country with these materials publishes their status."
Staff from the House Armed Services Committee is preparing to go to a new $500-million Tennessee facility where the uranium is stored. A spokesman for the Republican staff said they wanted to ask why existing highly enriched uranium surpluses were being "downblended" at a slower than expected rate.
Frank N. von Hippel, a Princeton University nuclear weapons expert and co-chairman of the International Panel on Fissile Materials, said, "We are awash in surplus" highly enriched uranium. But von Hippel makes a more conservative estimate of the surplus, putting it at about 60 metric tons.
[…]
Iran
6) Measures are in place to track Iran’s nuclear ambitions
Peter Crail, letter to the Washington Post, Tuesday, September 14, 2010; A20
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/13/AR2010091305851.html
[Crail is a nonproliferation analyst with the Arms Control Association.]
Washington – The secondary headline on the Sept. 10 editorial "Iran enriches" asked: "If Tehran launches a final push for a weapon, can U.N. inspectors detect it?"
The answer is yes.
For a "final push" to reach fruition, Iran would need to enrich its 2,800 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to weapons grade. Even though Tehran does appear to want a secret facility to carry out that enrichment, its low-enriched uranium is still under safeguards. Cameras provide real-time monitoring, seals indicate any tampering, and unannounced visits by inspectors throughout the year provide a thorough accounting of the material.
Moreover, Iran keeps getting caught building secret facilities. Its attempt to construct a clandestine plant near Qom was discovered last year, and Tehran appears to have lost interest in completing the facility.
Shedding light on Iran’s nuclear program has made it more costly and time-consuming for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons capability. In the event of a military strike against Iran, however, that light would go dark, and uncertainties about Iran’s capabilities would only increase.
Israel/Palestine
7) U.S. Urges Israel to Extend Settlement Moratorium
Helene Cooper, New York Times, September 10, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/11/world/middleeast/11diplo.html
Washington – President Obama called Friday for Israel to extend its moratorium on settlement construction in the West Bank as a good-will gesture to move peace talks with the Palestinians forward.
During a wide-ranging news conference at the White House, Mr. Obama said that while the politics of extending the moratorium would be difficult for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, given his conservative government coalition, he had nonetheless asked Mr. Netanyahu to extend it when they met recently in Washington.
"What I’ve said to Prime Minister Netanyahu is that given, so far, the talks are moving forward in a constructive way, it makes sense to extend that moratorium," Mr. Obama said, in remarks that took some administration officials by surprise.
Mr. Obama said he had also told Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, that he, too, had to make gestures to Israel to keep the peace talks going. The negotiations began last week in Washington.
"You’ve got to show the Israeli public that you are serious and constructive in these talks so that the politics for Prime Minister Netanyahu, if he were to extend the settlements moratorium, would be a little bit easier," Mr. Obama said he had told Mr. Abbas.
Mr. Obama’s remarks on Friday were significant because the settlement construction moratorium, which is scheduled to expire Sept. 26, is looming as the first hurdle in the nascent peace talks. His comments surprised some administration officials because of a customary concern that the United States not appear to be pushing Israel.
But a member of the administration said American officials had already been privately prodding their Israeli counterparts to look for ways to extend the moratorium. In many ways, Mr. Obama was simply acknowledging an open secret.
Israeli officials have given no indication that they would extend the moratorium, and Mr. Abbas has said he would walk away from the negotiations if settlement construction resumed.
Mr. Obama acknowledged the pressures Mr. Abbas faced from those who opposed the talks.
"I think President Abbas came here despite great misgivings and pressure from the other side, because he understood the window for creating a Palestinian state is closing," Mr. Obama said. "And there are a whole bunch of parties in the region who purport to be friends of the Palestinians, and yet do everything they can to avoid the path that would actually lead to a Palestinian state, would actually lead to their goal."
[…]
Iraq
8) In Iraq, Clearer Image Of U.S. Support
Michael R. Gordon, New York Times, September 13, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/world/middleeast/14military.html
Washington – American forces provided extensive support to the Iraqi military in a recent operation north of Baghdad, illustrating the risks that United States troops still endure in their new advisory role there.
During two days of combat in Diyala Province, American troops were armed with mortars, machine guns and sniper rifles. Apache and Kiowa helicopters attacked insurgents with cannon and machine-gun fire, and F-16’s dropped 500-pound bombs.
One American soldier was slightly wounded during the operation, which at times put United States forces within the range of insurgents’ hand grenades in an area thick with trenches and palm groves.
"This operation demonstrates the importance and dangers of the mission in Iraq during Operation New Dawn," Col. Malcolm B. Frost, the commander of the Second Advise and Assist Brigade, said in an e-mail response to a reporter’s questions.
"The elements in close ground combat were about 25 U.S. assisting and advising approximately 200 I.A. and I.P.," the colonel added, using the acronyms for the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police.
The Obama administration declared an end to the United States combat mission in Iraq on Sept. 1, a step intended to underscore the Iraqis’ increasing role in providing for their own security, but which was also aimed at reassuring Americans that President Obama was keeping his promise to remove forces from Iraq.
The American mission was renamed "Operation New Dawn," and American officials stressed that the main American role would now be to advise Iraqi troops and escort civilian American advisers.
But the six United States advisory brigades that remain retain all the weapons and forces of a combat brigade. Their rules of engagement allow them to defend themselves if they come under attack and to come to the aid of Iraqi forces – which is what occurred in recent days.
[…] All told, 49 American soldiers were on the ground in support, including two Stryker platoons and a 10-person Special Forces detachment. Apache helicopters responded with 30-millimeter cannon fire and Kiowa helicopters fired their machine guns. F-16’s dropped bombs. Iraqi helicopters and Iraqi armored personnel carriers were also involved in the operation.
"This was a grinding, slow, close combat fight," Colonel Frost wrote, also referring to the Iraqi security forces, or I.S.F. "Over the course of two days, U.S. forces advised I.S.F. leaders, and through air and ground, supported them as the I.S.F. conducted several attacks against a determined and well-armed enemy dug into a web of trenches in this thick palm grove area."
The colonel added, "U.S. soldiers were right there the whole time, advising and assisting the ISF every step of the way."
Honduras
9) IMF offers $196 mln stand-by agreement to Honduras.
Gustavo Palencia, Reuters, Sept 10
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1010941720100910
Tegucigalpa – The International Monetary Fund on Friday offered Honduras a stand-by agreement of $196 million, a bank official said, the first since the Central American country was thrust into tumult in last year’s coup.
The agreement will clear the way for access to an additional $200 million from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, the official said.
Venezuela
10) Ratings boost for Chavez ahead of Venezuelan vote
Frank Jack Daniel, Reuters, Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:56pm GMT
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE68D3D120100914
Caracas – Polls show Venezuela’s parliamentary election is a tight race between President Hugo Chavez’s allies and his opponents, but Chavez’s rising popularity and favourable election rules may tip the balance.
Chavez’s traditionally high popularity – in the 60s and 70s percentage range during his best moments of a more than decade-long rule – was hit this year by a recession, electricity and water supply problems, and high crime.
But new polls show that a recovery in his personal ratings, which began several months ago, continued in August, giving him cause for optimism ahead of the September 26 National Assembly vote, which is seen as an indicator for the 2012 presidential election.
In recent weeks, Chavez has begun campaigning in earnest and after months of austerity the government has started pumping up the import sector, as well as offering cheap credit to consumers, creating some sense of economic recovery.
Whether Chavez’s rising popularity will convert into votes for candidates from his Socialist Party and its allies in the upcoming election remains to be seen.
A new survey by pro-government pollster GIS XXI said 52.6 percent of respondents planned to support candidates allied to Chavez, while 47.4 percent backed the opposition.
A poll last month by the well-respected IVAD polling firm, consulted by both the government and opposition, said 54.3 percent would vote Socialist and 45.7 percent for the opposition.
[…] Venezuela’s main polling companies are almost always accused of being politicized by different sides.
They differ widely in the ratings they give Chavez depending on the areas and proportion of different social classes they survey, as well as the questions they ask.
But the polls tend to reflect the same trends.
And while Chavez’s popularity is far from his heyday, the latest ratings would still be the envy of many a president and show resilience for a leader in office since 1999 who this year has overseen a currency devaluation, high inflation, anger over crime and a scandal over rotting food.
11) Misreporting Venezuela’s economy
If you want a perfect illustration of media toeing the official line, look no further than the forecasts of Venezuela’s economic doom
Mark Weisbrot, Guardian, Saturday 11 September 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/sep/10/venezuela-economics
The bulk of the media often gets pulled along for the ride when the United States government has a serious political and public relations campaign around foreign policy. But almost nowhere is it so monolithic as with Venezuela. Even in the runup to the Iraq war, there were a significant number of reporters and editorial writers who didn’t buy the official story. But on Venezuela, the media is more like a jury that has 12 people but only one brain.
Since the Venezuelan opposition decided to campaign for the September elections on the issue of Venezuela’s high homicide rate, the international press has been flooded with stories on this theme – some of them highly exaggerated. This is actually quite an amazing public relations achievement for the Venezuelan opposition. Although most of the Venezuelan media, as measured by audience, is still owned by the political opposition there, the international press is not. Normally, it takes some kind of news hook, even if only a milestone such as the 10,000th murder, or a political statement from the White House, for a media campaign of this magnitude to take off. But in this case, all it took was a decision by the Venezuelan political opposition that homicide would be its main campaign issue, and the international press was all over it.
The "all bad news, all the time" theme was overwhelmingly dominant even during Venezuela’s record economic expansion, from 2003 to 2008. The economy grew as never before, poverty was cut by more than half, and there were large gains in employment. Real social spending per person more than tripled, and free healthcare was expanded to millions of people. You will have to search very hard to find these basic facts presented in a mainstream media article, although the numbers are hardly in dispute among economists in international organisations that deal with statistics.
For example, in May, the UN Commission on Latin America (ECLAC) found that Venezuela had reduced inequality by more than any other country in Latin America from 2002 to 2008, ending up with the most equal income distribution in the region. This has yet to be mentioned by the major international press.
Venezuela went into recession in 2009, and you can imagine how much more press attention has since been paid to GDP growth there than when Venezuela was growing faster than any economy in the hemisphere. Then, in January, the government devalued its currency, and the press was forecasting a big upsurge in inflation, to as much as 60 percent for this year. "stagflation" – recession plus rising inflation – became the new buzzword.
The "out-of-control" inflation didn’t happen – in fact, inflation over the last three months, which is 21% at annualised rate, is considerably lower than before the devaluation. This is yet another indicator that the economists relied upon by major media as sources have limited understanding of the actual functioning of Venezuela’s economy.
Now, it looks as though Venezuela may have emerged from its recession in the second quarter of this year. On a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, the economy grew by 5.2% in the second quarter. In June, Morgan Stanley projected that the economy would shrink by 6.2% this year and by 1.2% next year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting long-term gloom and doom for Venezuela: negative per capita GDP growth over the next five years. It is worth noting that the IMF gave the authors of "Dow 36,000" some competition for creative forecasting, with their repeated, wildly off-the-mark underestimates of the Venezuelan economy during the expansion.
All this may seem like par for the course if we compare it with coverage of the world’s largest economy, the United States, where the vast majority of the media somehow missed the two biggest asset bubbles in world history – the stockmarket and then the housing bubble. But there were important exceptions here (for example,. the New York Times in 2006). With Venezuela – well, you get the picture.
Of course, Venezuela’s continued growth is not assured; it will depend on the government making a commitment to maintaining high levels of aggregate demand, and keeping it. In that sense, its immediate situation is similar to that of the United States, the Eurozone and many other more developed economies, whose economic recovery is sluggish and uncertain right now.
Venezuela has adequate foreign exchange reserves, is running a trade and current account surplus, has low levels of foreign public debt and quite a bit of foreign borrowing capacity, if needed. This was demonstrated most recently in April with a $20bn (about 6% of Venezuela’s GDP) credit from China. As such, it is extremely unlikely to run up against a foreign exchange shortage. It can therefore use public spending and investment as much as necessary to make sure that the economy grows sufficiently to increase employment and living standards, as it did before the 2009 recession. (Our government in the United States could do the same, even more easily – but that does not appear to be in the cards right now.) This can go on for many years.
Whatever happens, we can expect complete coverage of one side of the story from the media. So keep it in mind: even when you are reading the New York Times or listening to NPR on Venezuela, you are getting Fox News. If you want something more balanced, you will have to look for it on the web.
–
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming US foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the majority of Americans.