Just Foreign Policy News, December 7, 2011
Conyers, Paul press for Merkley drawdown provision in NDAA
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I) Actions and Featured Articles
Conyers, Paul Press NDAA Conferees to Accept Accelerated Drawdown
Reps. John Conyers, Ron Paul, Jim McGovern, Walter Jones, and Barbara Lee sent a letter to the House-Senate NDAA conferees urging them to accept the Senate Merkley language pressing for an accelerated drawdown from Afghanistan.
https://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/1094
Barbara Lee Urges Obama to Expedite Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) and Congressman Walter Jones (R-NC) were joined by 40 Members of the House of Representatives in sending a letter to President Obama urging him to speed up the return of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
http://lee.house.gov/press-releases/congresswoman-barbara-lee-urges-president-obama-to-expedite-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
* Update: Washington Post Fixes Headline That Claimed Iran Has a Nuclear Weapons Program
Nearly a thousand people responded to our alert asking people to contact the Washington Post Ombudsman to complain about a Washington Post headline that claimed as fact that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. You can see the original screen capture on our alert:
https://www.justforeignpolicy.org/act/wapofactcheck
The Washington Post Ombudsman investigated our complaint, and the headline has been fixed. It now says, "Iran’s quest to possess nuclear technology." Thanks to everyone who took action! You can see the new headline here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/irans-quest-to-possess-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/07/gIQAEZaZvM_gallery.html
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II) Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) The top military commander in Afghanistan is recommending staving off new U.S. troop reductions until 2014, a position that could put him at odds with a White House, the Wall Street Journal reports. After the 2012 drawdown is complete, Obama said U.S. troops would continue leaving Afghanistan at a "steady pace." But people briefed on Gen. Allen’s thinking said he wants to halt troop withdrawals after the 2012 reductions and maintain troop levels at 68,000 through all of 2013. Some civilian advisers to the White House want troop reductions in 2013 to match or exceed the 23,000 scheduled to be withdrawn between the beginning of 2012 and the end of the summer.
Presentations by Gen. Allen and other top officers in Kabul about the importance of maintaining troop levels at 68,000 have raised some eyebrows on Capitol Hill, where many Democratic lawmakers favor a more rapid withdrawal, the Journal says. "We don’t have the resources, the manpower or time to do everything that they want to do," said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently visited Kabul, where he met with top commanders.
2) Amnesty International called on the U.S. to immediately halt the transfer of U.S.-manufactured ammunition to Egypt amid the Egyptian security forces’ repeated violent dispersals of protesters. On December 1, a State Department spokesperson confirmed that "export licenses were approved to two American companies, most recently in July, for the export of tear gas and other non-lethal riot control agents to the Egyptian government.
"These licenses were authorized during a period where the Egyptian government responded to protests by using excessive and often lethal force. It is inconceivable that the U.S. authorities did not know of evidence of widely documented abuses by the Egyptian security forces. These licenses should not have been granted," Amnesty said.
3) The Obama administration is working to water down language in the NDAA that would impose crippling sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, Foreign Policy reports. [The White House has claimed, quite plausibly, that the sanctions imposed by the Senate language could tip the world economy into recession – JFP.] One GOP congressional aide told The Cable that if Rep. Howard Berman seems to be working to weaken the Senate language, Republicans are ready to use that as fodder against him in his upcoming primary fight against Rep. Brad Sherman.
4) The U.S. considered a raid or airstrike to recover or destroy a spy drone that crashed in Iran, the Atlantic reports. But officials decided not to carry out the mission because they feared the strike could be considered an "act of war."
5) The White House and Pentagon are near agreement on a draft five-year defense budget that flattens expenditures though 2017, Bloomberg reports. "This is the first time the Obama Administration has proposed a defense budget for the coming year that is less than the previous year," said defense budget analyst Todd Harrison.
The White House and Pentagon have agreed to $82.54 billion in war funding for 2013, which assumes 68,000 troops in Afghanistan through that fiscal year. Over the past six years, the cost per troop in Afghanistan has averaged about $1.2 million per-troop per-year, and that’s precisely what this budget works out to on a per troop basis," Harrison said.
The budget fits within the original caps of the Budget Control Act, but does not take account of the additional automatic cuts the Pentagon is supposed to face, Harrison notes.
6) China and the U.S. again locked horns over the question of binding emissions caps at global climate talks, the New York Times reports. But negotiators appear close to agreeing on how to structure a fund that is supposed to generate $100 billion a year in public and private financing for climate change programs by 2020.
Honduras
7) A radio news host was fatally shot as she commuted to work in Honduras, AP reports. She had worked at Radio Globo, where she was critical of a 2009 coup in which former President Zelaya was deposed. Human rights advocates say at least 23 journalists have been killed in Honduras since 2007. "These new attacks are part of a campaign of violence and insecurity in general, and of threats and intimidation against editors and journalists in particular that we have been denouncing in Honduras," said the Inter American Press Association.
Nicaragua
8) In recent elections, the Sandinista Front for National Liberation won an unprecedented 62.46 percent of the national vote, writes Daniel McCurdy for Nicaragua Dispatch. But despite opposition claims of fraud, the result was consistent with pre-election polling by Cid-Gallup.
Iran
9) The U.S. should pursue positive measures to help persuade Iran to forego acquisition of nuclear weapons, write retired military officers Brig. Gen. John Adams and Lt. Col. Chris Courtney in Politico. They call for opening up routine diplomatic exchange, refraining from military threats against Iran, and inviting Iran to participate in Persian Gulf regional security activities as measures to reduce the risk of military conflict.
Pakistan
10) Pakistan’s interior minister thanked the country’s Taliban militant movement Tuesday for not staging attacks during this year’s Shiite ritual of Ashoura, AP reports. Interior Minister Rehman Malik said he had appealed to the Taliban to "respect" the Shiite observances and "I want to thank them for doing that."
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Commander Seeks Delay In U.S. Troop Drawdown
Risking White House Clash, U.S. Commander Pushes for a 2013 Pause in
Pulling Soldiers From War
Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, Wall Street Journal, December 7, 2011, Pg. 11
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204083204577082603515444194.html
(paywall)
Washington-The top military commander in Afghanistan is privately recommending staving off new U.S. troop reductions until 2014, a position that could put him at odds with a White House eager to wind down the 10-year-old war.
Gen. John Allen, who commands U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in Afghanistan, has shared his thinking with visiting congressional officials and other delegations in a series of recent closed-door briefings in Kabul, according to participants and other officials.
In June, President Barack Obama ordered the Pentagon to wind down a 33,000 troop surge by reducing the U.S. force to about 68,000 by the end of next summer. There currently are around 97,000 U.S. troops in the war zone and the number is gradually dropping, under that pullout plan.
After the 2012 drawdown is complete, Mr. Obama said U.S. troops would continue leaving Afghanistan at a "steady pace" as Afghan forces assume more responsibility for the country’s security.
But people briefed on Gen. Allen’s thinking said he wants to halt troop withdrawals after the 2012 reductions and maintain troop levels at 68,000 through all of 2013. He envisages the drawdown resuming sometime in 2014, the year Afghans are scheduled to assume lead responsibility for securing the country, officials said.
[…] In contrast, some civilian advisers to the White House have privately made clear they want troop reductions in 2013 to match or exceed the 23,000 scheduled to be withdrawn between the beginning of 2012 and the end of the summer, said participants in the White House discussions. The Pentagon is slated to pull out 10,000 troops by the end of this
year.
Military commanders in the field frequently use briefings for high-level visitors both to try to advance their agenda and to sound out political leaders on military plans. Some officials in Washington are critical of what they sometimes see as commanders in war zones circumventing decision makers back home.
[…] While eager to show he is winding down the war, Mr. Obama is likely to be wary of a public scrape with top military commanders, which could provide fodder for unified Republican attacks.
Mr. Obama has been criticized by Republican presidential hopefuls for his handling of U.S. foreign policy, which his own supporters see as a strong suit. The GOP hopefuls are divided over what do in Afghanistan, with some advocating a rapid withdrawal and others urging a more sustained effort.
[…] Some advisers to Mr. Obama would like to see further Afghan troop reductions next year, according to several officials, possibly to coincide with a summit of NATO leaders in Chicago in May, at the height of the U.S. presidential campaign.
Presentations by Gen. Allen and other top officers in Kabul about the importance of maintaining troop levels at 68,000 have raised some eyebrows on Capitol Hill, where many Democratic lawmakers favor a more rapid withdrawal.
"We don’t have the resources, the manpower or time to do everything that they want to do," said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently visited Kabul, where he met with top commanders.
[…]
2) Amnesty International Calls on U.S. Government to Stop Arms Supplies to Egyptian Security Forces
Organization Says Data Shows Repeated Transfers of Ammunition to Egypt, Despite Violent Dispersals of Protesters
Amnesty International, December 7, 2011
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/press-releases/amnesty-international-calls-on-us-government-to-stop-arms-supplies-to-egyptian-security-forces
Washington — Amnesty International called on the U.S. government today to immediately halt the transfer of U.S.-manufactured ammunition to Egypt amid the Egyptian security forces’ troubling and repeated violent dispersals of protesters.
Data obtained by Amnesty International shows that the United States has repeatedly transferred ammunition to Egypt despite security forces’ violent crackdown on protesters.
"U.S. arms shipments to Egypt’s security forces must be stopped until there is certainty that tear gas and other munitions, weaponry or other equipment are not linked to bloodshed on Egyptian streets," said Brian Wood of Amnesty International.
A shipment for the Egyptian Ministry of Interior arrived from the United States on November 26, carrying at least seven tons of "ammunition smoke," which includes chemical irritants and riot control agents such as tear gas.
It was one of at least three arms deliveries to Egypt by the U.S. company Combined Systems, Inc. since the brutal crackdown on the "25 January Revolution" protesters.
[…] On December 1, a U.S. State Department spokesperson confirmed that "export licenses were approved to two American companies, most recently in July, for the export of tear gas and other non-lethal riot control agents to the Egyptian government.
"These licenses were authorized during a period where the Egyptian government responded to protests by using excessive and often lethal force. It is inconceivable that the U.S. authorities did not know of evidence of widely documented abuses by the Egyptian security forces. These licenses should not have been granted," said Wood.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson said on November 29, "we haven’t seen any real concrete proof that the Egyptian authorities were misusing tear gas."
As recently as November, protests against the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) were violently dispersed with tear gas, resulting in at least two dozen deaths and hundreds of injuries.
Many of the cartridges and grenades picked up by protestors in Tahrir Square were US-made tear gas, including those marked Combined Systems Inc. or Combined Tactical Systems, which is the company’s law enforcement division.
3) Administration tries to water down Iran sanctions legislation, Foreign Policy, December 6, 2011
Josh Rogin, The Cable, Tuesday, December 6, 2011 – 1:55 PM
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/06/administration_tries_to_water_down_iran_sanctions_legislation
President Barack Obama’s administration is working behind the scenes to water down congressional language that would impose crippling sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).
The Obama administration sent to Congress this week a list of requested changes to the sanctions language found in the Senate’s version of the defense authorization bill, which was passed last week. Those sanctions, which would punish any bank that does business with the CBI, were part of an amendment authored by Sens. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) that passed the Senate over the administration’s objections by a vote of 100 to 0.
The House and the Senate are negotiating over the defense authorization bill this week behind closed doors, so the administration has one more chance to try to change the sanctions language before the bill lands on Obama’s desk.
[…] Menendez had been working with the administration on how to sanction the CBI, but publicly announced on Dec. 1 that he felt burned by the administration’s public opposition to his amendment. "This certainly undermines your relationship with me for the future," Menendez told administration officials at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.
So the administration must now look toward Howard Berman (D-CA), the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, for help in altering the Kirk-Menendez amendment. Berman’s committee has shared jurisdiction on the bill, and Berman has been active in sponsoring legislation to sanction Iran and the CBI.
[…] One GOP congressional aide told The Cable that if Berman seems to be working to weaken the Senate language, Republicans are ready to use that as fodder against him in his upcoming primary fight against Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA). The two lawmakers’ districts were combined due to redistricting, and they now have to run against each other next year.
"I can’t imagine why Howard Berman would want to put his seat at risk by helping the Obama administration weaken Iran sanctions," the GOP aide said. "All he needs to say is ‘The House recedes’ and the Menendez/Kirk amendment becomes law. Brad Sherman must be licking his chops."
4) Fallen U.S. Drone Nearly Led to Covert Strike in Iran,
John Hudson, The Atlantic, December 7, 2011
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/12/fallen-us-drone-nearly-led-covert-strike-iran/45857/
New reports on the CIA drone lost in Iran last week reveal the scope of the stealth plane’s mission and just how far the U.S. was willing to go to recover it. The Associated Press reports on Wednesday that despite U.S. military statements Monday suggesting the drone was lost while flying a mission in western Afghanistan, Iranian officials say the RQ-170 drone was detected about 140 miles from the border of Afghanistan, deep inside the country’s air space. U.S. officials, speaking on background, confirmed the RQ-170 drone had been spying on Iran for years but did not indicate the extent to which it penetrated Iranian air space. They did say the U.S. air base in Shindad, Afghanistan, was designed to launch "surveillance missions and even special operations missions into Iran if deemed necessary."
In a sign of how badly the U.S. wanted the stealth drone back, The Wall Street Journal reports that it contemplated three different operations to recover the fallen drone. One plan involved sending commandos in Afghanistan assisted by U.S. agents in Iran to track down and recover the drone. "Another option would have had a team sneak in to blow up the remaining pieces of the drone," reports the Journal. "A third option would have been to destroy the wreckage with an airstrike."
In the end, officials decided not to carry out the mission for two reasons: a) they feared the strike could be considered an "act of war" and b) it crashed in such a remote area of Iran that officials hoped it wouldn’t be found "therefore, leaving the remains where they were could be the safest option."
[…]
5) Obama Administration Urges Flat 2013-2017 Defense Spending Plan
Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg, Dec 6, 2011 11:01 PM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/white-house-calls-for-flat-13-17-dod-budget.html
The White House and Pentagon are near agreement on a draft five-year defense budget that flattens expenditures though 2017, with the lowest war spending since 2004, according to an Office of Management and Budget document.
[…] Defense spending in 2013 would be reduced 1 percent from this year’s pending $525.3 billion budget request before growing annually 1.8 percent in 2014, 2.3 percent in 2015, dropping to 1.9 percent in 2016 and increasing 2.2 percent in 2017, according to the 23-page document, a Nov. 29 OMB "pass-back" budget to the Pentagon. Bloomberg News obtained the document.
"This is the first time the Obama Administration has proposed a defense budget for the coming year that is less than the previous year," said Todd Harrison, a defense budget analyst for the non-partisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.
The percentage increases are expressed in "nominal growth," not adjusted for inflation. The OMB numbers apply only to Pentagon spending. Pentagon budget officials plan to conclude the process by Dec. 20.
The White House and Pentagon also have agreed to $82.54 billion in war funding for 2013 and $50 billion "placeholder" amounts through the remainder of the plan.
The $82 billion assumes 68,000 troops in Afghanistan through that fiscal year. There are 97,000 today. The request is the lowest for war spending since fiscal 2004, when the Pentagon requested about $69 billion, according to comptroller data.
"The $82.5 billion requested is consistent with the number of troops they are projecting," Harrison said. "Over the past six years, the cost per troop in Afghanistan has averaged about $1.2 million per-troop per-year, and that’s precisely what this budget works out to on a per troop basis."
The OMB data outlines the distribution of the initial $261 billion in reductions mandated by the Budget Control Act: $27.5 billion in fiscal 2012; $46.8 billion in fiscal 2013; $53.3 billion in 2014; $52.7 billion in 2015; $54.6 billion in 2016 and $53.5 billion in 2017.
[…] "This budget fits within the initial budget caps agreed to in the Budget Control Act," Harrison said. "It does not fit under the caps imposed by sequestration, which would reduce the base budget by about $54 billion below the amounts currently projected for each year," he said, referring to the potential for another $500 billion in automatic cuts.
"This clearly indicates the Pentagon and the White House are not preparing a budget that would comply with sequestration," he said.
[…]
6) At Climate Talks, a Familiar Standoff Emerges Between the U.S. and China
John M. Broder, New York Times, December 7, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/science/earth/at-climate-talks-a-familiar-standoff-emerges-between-the-united-states-and-china.html
Durban, South Africa – China, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter, has once again emerged as the biggest puzzle at international climate change talks, sending ambiguous signals about the role it intends to play in future negotiations. This week the nation’s top climate envoy said that China would be open to signing a formal treaty limiting emissions after 2020 – but laid down conditions for doing so that are unlikely ever to be met.
China’s lead negotiator at the United Nations climate change talks here, Xie Zhenhua, said that China was prepared to enter into a legally binding agreement after current voluntary programs expire at the end of the decade, seemingly a major step. China has always contended that because of its rapid economic growth and the persistent poverty of millions of its citizens, it cannot be bound by the same emissions standards as advanced industrialized nations.
Mr. Xie outlined five conditions under which China would consider joining such a treaty as a full partner, the major one being that China and other rapidly growing economies must be treated differently from the so-called rich countries. But that has been a deal-breaker for the United States for years and is the central reason that the Senate refused to even consider ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 agreement whose goal, still unmet, is to limit global greenhouse gas emissions.
[…] Todd D. Stern, the American climate change envoy, said that the United States would be happy to discuss a formal treaty at some future date and then spelled out his conditions, which also were not new and appeared to rule out any sort of deal like that envisioned by Mr. Xie.
For a legally binding agreement to take hold, "it’s going to be absolutely critical that it applies to all the major players, and China obviously is one of them," Mr. Stern said at a briefing.
[…] The standoff has threatened to derail the process in each of the past several years, but at the end of the two-week session the parties usually pull back from the brink and announce an incremental, face-saving deal.
This year’s talks appear headed for the same sort of conclusion, in which significant progress is made on subsidiary issues and the biggest disputes are pushed down the road, although there is still a chance of a complete collapse.
Negotiators appear close to agreeing on how to structure a fund that is supposed to generate $100 billion a year in public and private financing for climate change programs by 2020. They have also made progress on programs to save tropical forests from clear-cutting, transfer clean-energy technology to emerging nations and refine systems for verifying that countries are taking steps to reduce emissions.
The holy grail of these talks, a global treaty encompassing all nations and limiting temperature rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels, appears as elusive as ever.
Weary of the inconclusive jousting on a treaty with teeth, many delegates and observers say that small progress may not be a bad thing.
Elliot Diringer, executive vice president of the Center for Energy and Climate Solutions, a private research and advocacy group in Washington, said that while a legal treaty remains an important prod to action, it should not get in the way of more immediate steps.
"This preoccupation with ‘binding’ has become more an obstacle than a means of progress," he said in an e-mail. "The reality is that key players including the United States and China are not prepared at this stage to take on binding commitments to reduce their emissions."Rather than arguing over that year after year, we should focus on strengthening the international climate framework step by step."
Honduras
7) Honduran journalist shot, killed outside her home
Associated Press, December 6, 2011
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/12/06/2534707/honduran-journalist-shot-killed.html
A radio news host was fatally shot by gunmen on motorcycles Tuesday as she commuted to work in the capital of Honduras, where rampant drug-trafficking and weak, corrupt policing are fueling one of the world’s worst homicide rates.
Luz Marina Paz and her driver were hit by dozens of bullets fired by men on two motorcycles outside Paz’s home in Tegucigalpa, national police spokesman Luis Maradiaga said.
Paz, 38, hosted a morning program called "Three in the News" broadcast on the Honduran News Channel. While she discussed politics and narcotics trafficking, she was not among Honduras’ best-known or most outspoken journalists.
She had previously worked for eight years for the country’s Radio Globo, where she was critical of a 2009 coup in which former President Manuel Zelaya was deposed at gunpoint. The coup isolated Honduras internationally and cost it international aid to fund security efforts and fight poverty and drug-trafficking.
Hours before Paz was attacked, gunmen opened fire on the offices of the Tribune newspaper, fatally wounding a caretaker.
Human rights advocates say at least 23 journalists have been killed in Honduras since 2007, many for angering organized criminals and drug traffickers with their work. The Miami-based Inter American Press Association said Paz, who also owned her own business, had received death threats from criminals to whom she had refused to pay extortion.
"These new attacks are part of a campaign of violence and insecurity in general, and of threats and intimidation against editors and journalists in particular that we have been denouncing in Honduras," said the president of the group’s committee on press freedom, Gustavo Mohme.
[…]
Nicaragua
8) In Defense of the CSE
How the OAS and EU were used by the PLI.
Daniel McCurdy, Nicaragua Dispatch, December 7, 2011
http://www.nicaraguadispatch.com/blogs-opinion/in-defense-of-the-cse/1561
A little more than two weeks ago, elections took place in Nicaragua in which the Sandinista Front for National Liberation won an unprecedented 62.46 percent of the national vote. Throughout the past year, Cid-Gallup, the Gallup institutional affiliate in Central America, and M&R Consultants, an independent private polling firm, had repeatedly predicted a decisive win for Daniel Ortega. As the year progressed, the poll margin lead held by Ortega became wider and reached 53 percent (with the closest opposition candidate holding 19 percent of the vote) of the vote two weeks prior to the elections, according to Cid-Gallup.
In an interview on channel 12 in Nicaragua, Vania Soza, project director for Cid-Gallup polling, affirmed that
"In our polls in the past year, voter intentionality has been for the candidate of FSLN…we consider that we hit it on the bulls eye with our polling results. It’s worth mentioning that we-in all the countries where Cid Gallup exists-have nailed it in terms of presidential elections."
Speaking about polling results prior to the elections in a post-election interview, Raúl Obregón, general manager of M&R Consultants, said:
"For us, as polling consultants, this election has been the least stressful, I’m talking about numbers here, not about political issues…for example, in September of 2010, we got 44 percent [for Ortega]; then, in December of the same year, we got 46 percent; by April [of 2011] we were getting around 50 percent…by mid-year we had 56 percent, and later, in the last [poll] we did in October, [Ortega] was at 58 percent. What does this mean? That voter intentionality was showing a tendency toward the candidacy of Daniel Ortega."
Despite the seemingly overwhelming support the FSLN garnered for these elections, the opposition parties repeatedly made claims of fraud and threats of post-election violence even before the elections occurred.
[…]
Iran
9) Add carrots to Iran policy menu
Brig. Gen. John Adams and Lt. Col. Chris Courtney, Politico, December 6, 2011
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69884.html
[Brig. Gen. John Adams and Lt. Col. Chris Courtney, both retired, served in the U.S.Army. They are members of the Consensus for American Security.]
Talk of bombing Iran is again proliferating as a talking point among politicians who want to sound tough on national security. This happens every election season. It will no doubt be among the most repeated foreign policy themes in the 2012 campaign. But sounding tough should not be mistaken for smart policy.
We have to keep in mind that Iran’s development of a nuclear-weapon capability has been motivated by its sense of vulnerability and the regime’s fear for survival. The best way to motivate Iran to develop nuclear weapons is to keep threatening.
[…] Let’s be clear: A U.S. attack on Iran runs a great risk of starting a regional war – our fourth war in 10 years. Isn’t that what we want to avoid in the first place?
[…] Our large military presence in the Gulf region has only heightened Iranian perceptions about U.S. threats. It may well have contributed to Iran’s increased nuclear efforts.
In addition, U.S. ground force bases in the Middle East increase the vulnerability of our troops in the event of a regional war. Yet they also limit our use of these troops in the event of real crises.
Most important, and most difficult to achieve, Iran must not only be dissuaded from the bomb but perceive a positive stake in regional cooperation. We’re good at brandishing "sticks" but should offer an array of "carrots" as well.
For starters, the U.S. should:
• Open new lines of communication. Our policymakers suffer from a lack of information about the situation in Iran. There is no routine contact with Iranian decision makers – much less opposition figures. It’s time to change this foolish policy. Opening up routine diplomatic exchange – even at low levels – means a more informed policy, as well as the ability to react quickly in crises with a reduced risk of military conflict. Engagement does not equate to endorsement of Iranian actions. But it does provide a new way to influence Iran’s decision making while better informing our own.
• Refrain from military threats against Iran, explicit or implicit – "all options are on the table," after all, is a threat. Our intent should be to deny hard-liners a rallying call and strengthen reformists in the internal political debate.
• Invite Iran to participate in Persian Gulf regional security activities. There’s a lot of important groundwork to be laid before this. But combined with demonstration of U.S. and allied air and naval capabilities, even incremental steps in this direction would reduce the risk of regional conflict.
[…]
Pakistan
10) Pakistani minister thanks Taliban for not staging attacks during Shiite ritual
Associated Press, December 6
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistani-minister-thanks-taliban-for-not-staging-attacks-during-shiite-festival/2011/12/06/gIQAqZCkZO_story.html
Islamabad – Pakistan’s interior minister thanked the country’s Taliban militant movement Tuesday for not staging attacks during this year’s Shiite ritual of Ashoura, a remark likely to draw criticism as the country grapples with how to subdue the extremists.
The Pakistani Taliban and other Sunni extremist groups have frequently bombed Shiite processions during Ashoura.
The government has declared war on the group, but in recent weeks there have been unconfirmed reports of peace talks with at least some factions within the Taliban.
Unlike in neighboring Afghanistan, where a suicide bomber killed more than 50 Shiites earlier Tuesday, the Ashoura observances passed peacefully in Pakistan this year.
Speaking to reporters in the capital, Islamabad, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said he had appealed to the Taliban to "respect" the Shiite observances and "I want to thank them for doing that."
It was unclear whether Malik, who has a history of making controversial, insensitive or wrong statements, was referring to a formal appeal to the Taliban. He has previously denied the reports of peace talks with the group. The government’s official line is that it will talk to any militant outfit if it renounces violence and lays down its arms.
[…] Despite the Taliban’s violence, there is political and public support for a peace deal with the group.
Many Pakistanis share its hard-line religious views and anti-American stance, and believe the militants could be brought into the fold if only Islamabad severed its alliance with Washington, which they blame for the insurgency.
–
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