Just Foreign Policy News
January 18, 2011
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Al Jazeera Video: Tunisian anger at ‘unity govt’
Protesters are angry at how many members of the previous government have been allowed to keep key posts, including the ministers of defense, finance, the interior and foreign affairs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXvbiTMXfkc
Center for Economic and Policy Research: Analysis of the OAS Mission’s Draft Final Report on Haiti’s Election
CEPR finds that the OAS Mission did not establish any legal, statistical, or other logical basis for its conclusion that candidate Michel Martelly finished second and Jude Celestin third.
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/analysis-of-the-oas-missions-draft-final-report-on-haitis-election
Jeff Cohen and Norman Solomon: A Time for Action – Not Servility
Cohen and Solomon announce the formation of "Roots Action."
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/01/18-0
Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) At least five ministers from opposition parties resigned from Tunisia’s unity government on Tuesday, bowing to a wave of street protests against the cabinet’s domination by members of the ousted president’s ruling party, the New York Times reports. Protesters said it was important that Islamists, along with Communists and other excluded groups, join any governing slate. Prime Minister Ghannouchi pledged to release all political prisoners and to recognize the banned Communist and Islamic parties, as well as hold free, internationally monitored elections within six months.
2) Lebanon’s President Suleiman postponed talks to form a new government as regional leaders convened in Syria to find a way out of Lebanon’s political crisis, the New York Times reports. The decision seemed to reflect a desire among Lebanese politicians for international mediation to succeed, the Times says. On Monday, Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry summoned the US ambassador, Maura Connelly, whom it criticized for "interfering in Lebanon’s internal affairs" after she visited a lawmaker who was undecided about his choice for prime minister. That visit soon became the butt of jokes on Lebanese television, the Times says. That the lawmaker, a relatively minor politician, warranted a visit by the US ambassador illustrated the perception that the next prime minister would not be chosen by Parliament, but by a half-dozen or so foreign embassies in Beirut.
3) A study published in the International Journal of Health Services suggested that loan conditions being imposed by the IMF were leading to health aid being diverted for other uses, the Guardian reports. Poor countries that borrow from the IMF are spending just one cent in every dollar received in health aid on improving medical care; countries that did not borrow from the IMF channeled 45 cents into health systems for every dollar of aid received. Dr. David Stuckler of Oxford University, a co-author of the study, acknowledged that countries borrowing from the IMF had more economic problems, even at the same level of income; but argued that even in such circumstances, "it is reasonable to expect aid from donors to have at least some positive impact on health funding." The study concluded that changes are needed to loan conditions so that finance ministers in poor countries had more "fiscal space" to use health aid for its intended purposes.
4) Honduras’ National Congress has passed reforms to the 1982 Constitution that would open the way to changing key elements of the document- including the ban on presidential reelection – by popular referendum, according to the Nicaragua Solidarity Network of Greater New York. Commentators were quick to note that the military removed former president Zelaya from office in June 2009 on the pretext that a nonbinding referendum he was promoting could have resulted in similar changes to the Constitution. Grassroots organizations denounced the new reforms as an inadequate response to the popular pressure for more extensive changes to the current Constitution.
Tomás Andino, a former Congress member from the center-left Democratic Unification party attributed the government’s reforms to international pressure. He said the US was following a policy of supporting "moderate coup supporters" and dissociating itself from the "recalcitrant coup supporters." According to Andino, the US pushed the Lobo government in December to return Zelaya to Honduras from exile and to punish the "visible faces of the coup." The government’s failure to follow the US plan lost Honduras $215 million of US aid from the Millennium Challenge Corporation, Andino said, and could result in the loss of other aid.
5) The head of US detention operations in Afghanistan claims a dramatic shift in US policy towards treating suspected enemies better and releasing them sooner, the Boston Globe reports. But despite improvements, the US military’s opaque judicial process often seems arbitrary to the local populace and continues to leave some Afghans unappeased, the Globe says. "The perception is still that [the US military justice system] is like a black hole," said the director of the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies, an Afghan NGO that offers legal defense to detainees.
6) Afghanistan’s Finance Minister disputed that Afghanistan is trying to tax US aid in its efforts to tax US contractors operating in Afghanistan, the New York Times reports. He said foreign contractors have received tax notices for income not covered by their military or aid contracts. The deputy minister of finance for customs and revenue said that many contractors were using their tax-exempt status to work on non-aid business that should be taxed. He gave the example of fuel oil importers working for the military, who are allowed to bring fuel into Afghanistan without paying tax, but who in many cases sell a portion of their imports into the private market. "When we ask them for proof about how much they brought in, they won’t say," he said. "The military won’t tell us how much either."
Israel/Palestine
7) Thousands of Israelis marched in Tel Aviv at the weekend in the biggest demonstration for years to protest against Israeli government attacks on human rights organizations, the Guardian reports. "Israel is not a democracy any more," said former Knesset speaker Avraham Burg, calling the situation an "emergency." One protester said "it must be the end of the world" for her to join a demonstration on a Saturday evening.
Iran
8) Iran has embarked on a sweeping program of cuts in system of subsidies, the New York Times reports. Analysts say the government’s success in overcoming political obstacles to make the cuts suggests that President Ahmadinejad may have consolidated power, which may make it easier for the government to make a deal with the West. "A confident and unified regime is better positioned to reach consensus on some initial agreement," said a former State Department official. The success of the subsidy cuts so far seems to have contributed to a continuing reassessment of Ahmadinejad, who emerged in the diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks as something of a sober pragmatist, the Times says.
Afghanistan
9) Iran told the Afghan government on Tuesday that it will stop blocking thousands of tanker trucks trying to move fuel into Afghanistan, AP reports. Afghan officials said Iran had expressed concern that fuel shipments were supplying NATO forces in Afghanistan. One of the reasons the tankers remained stuck at the border was because Afghanistan had refused to disclose the amount of its domestic fuel consumption, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency in Tehran.
Pakistan
10) Senior US intelligence and counterinsurgency officials say Pakistan’s refusal to attack militants in North Waziristan has actually benefited the US by causing militants to congregate there, where they can be targeted by US drone strikes, the New York Times reports.
Haiti
11) Haitian police took ex-dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier to court Tuesday without saying whether he was being charged with crimes committed under his brutal regime, AP reports. Human rights groups have called for Duvalier’s arrest.
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Unity Government in Tunisia Fractured by Resignations
David D. Kirkpatrick, New York Times, January 18, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/19/world/africa/19tunis.html
Tunis – Five or more ministers from opposition parties resigned from Tunisia’s unity government on Tuesday, bowing to a wave of street protests against the cabinet’s domination by members of the ousted president’s ruling party and putting mounting pressure on his prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, to resign as well.
As the leaders of the established opposition parties renounced the unity government, the revolutionary passions unleashed across the region continued to reverberate, as two more men in Egypt set themselves ablaze on Tuesday and a third was stopped before he could do so. Those self-immolations followed six others, all in apparent imitation of the one that set off the Tunisian uprising a month ago.
The new unity government was showing strains practically from the moment it was sworn in on Monday, with new protests focused on its links to the former president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
In a radio interview on Tuesday, Mr. Ghannouchi insisted that ministers in the new government carried over from the former regime "have clean hands and great competence."
Protesters – previously focused on ousting Mr. Ben Ali – marched on the headquarters of the Progressive Democratic Party, the biggest legal opposition party, demanding that it pull out of the unity government. Inside, party leaders struggled to mollify their members. "You sympathize with the current government," one woman shouted. "How are you supposed to represent the people?"
[…] In interviews, many of the protesters said they were independents who marched to preserve the ideals of the uprising that caused Mr. Ben Ali to flee the country. Some had come from outside of Tunis to demand deeper change in the government.
"I came because Mohammed Ghannouchi cannot reflect the reality of the revolution," said Zaafourny Adel, a 23-year-old student. Calling himself "anti-Islamist," Mr. Adel said it was important that Islamists, along with Communists and other excluded groups, join any governing slate.
[…] Anger over the newly formed unity government has been building. On Monday, more than 1,000 protesters swarmed once again onto the city’s main artery, Bourguiba Boulevard, in what they described as an effort to sustain their revolution. They raged against the domination of the new cabinet by members of the ousted president’s ruling party. "Citizens and martyrs, the government is still the same," they chanted. "We will protest, we will protest, until the government collapses!"
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Ghannouchi, speaking to the French Europe 1 broadcaster while struggling to convince protesters in the streets that the unity cabinet would oversee a real transition after the bloodshed of the uprising, promised that "all those who initiated this massacre, this carnage, will be brought to justice."
[…] But he declined to say whether the new government would seek to bring Mr. Ben Ali to trial, deflecting the question by blaming the self-enrichment of his entourage – an apparent reference to the former president’s wife and her relatives. "They will have a fair trial," Mr. Ghannouchi said. "And if they are guilty, they will be brought to justice."
On the streets Monday, protesters called for the complete eradication of the old ruling party, while complaining that outlawed parties like the once powerful Islamist groups or the Tunisian Communists – battle-scarred stalwarts of the long dissident fight against Mr. Ben Ali’s 23-year-rule – were still barred from participating.
"Nothing has changed," said Mohamed Cherni, 47, a teacher who said he had been tortured by Mr. Ben Ali’s police force. "It is still the same regime as before, and so we are going to keep fighting."
[…] Opposition leaders included in the new government said the revolution had collided with reality. After 23 years of Mr. Ben Ali’s one-party dictatorship, it was impossible to find qualified officials outside the party who could take the reins of government quickly enough to stabilize the country and hold free elections.
The government, meanwhile, scrambled for credibility. Mr. Ghannouchi declared the end of Tunisia’s suffocating propaganda and censorship machine. He pledged to release all political prisoners and to recognize the banned Communist and Islamic parties, as well as hold free, internationally monitored elections within six months.
[…]
2) Lebanon Delays Talks on New Government
Nada Bakri and Marlise Simons, New York Times, January 17, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/world/middleeast/18lebanon.html
Beirut, Lebanon – The Lebanese president on Monday postponed talks to form a new government as regional leaders convened in Syria to find a way out of one of Lebanon’s worst crises in years.
[…] President Michel Suleiman’s decision on Monday to postpone negotiations to form a new government appeared to signal the difficulties that Lebanon’s politicians face in choosing a new prime minister. It also seemed to reflect a desire among Lebanese politicians for international mediation to succeed.
"We need to sort out our problems before we nominate a new prime minister," said the minister of economy and trade, Mohammad Safadi, a Sunni leader and a potential compromise candidate for prime minister. "You can’t move forward with such a big split in the country."
Lebanon is often a battleground where other countries settle their disputes, and this crisis is no different. Hezbollah’s patrons, Iran and Syria, have sought to influence the negotiations, as have Mr. Hariri’s supporters, which include France, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
On Monday, Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry summoned the United States ambassador, Maura Connelly, whom it criticized for "interfering in Lebanon’s internal affairs" after she visited a lawmaker who was undecided about his choice for prime minister.
That visit soon became the butt of jokes on Lebanese television. The lawmaker, Nicola Fattoush, is a relatively minor politician; that he warranted a visit by the ambassador illustrated the perception that the next prime minister would not be chosen by Parliament, but by a half-dozen or so foreign embassies in Beirut.
Before the government fell, ending a period of relative calm, Saudi Arabia and Syria were trying to reach a deal over the tribunal and its possible indictments. Those talks fell through last week, for reasons that remain unclear. Hezbollah has accused the United States of scuttling the negotiations; others said that Syria was not able to deliver on what it had promised in the talks.
[…]
3) Poor countries with IMF loans ‘divert aid from public health’
Oxford University-led research finds signs that tough loan conditions imposed by IMF has led to health aid being diverted for other uses
Larry Elliott, The Guardian, Monday 17 January 2011
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/17/imf-health-aid-millennium-development-goals
Poor countries that borrow from the International Monetary Fund are spending just one cent in every dollar received in health aid on improving the medical care of their populations, according to new Oxford University-led research.
The study, published in the International Journal of Health Services, said there were signs that the tough loan conditions imposed by the IMF were leading to health aid being diverted for other uses.
In an investigation of more than 100 low and middle-income countries, the report sought to explain why increased aid spending had left many countries well off track to hit the United Nations millennium development goals (MDGs) for health, which include a two-thirds reduction in infant mortality and a three-quarter decline in maternal mortality.
They said one likely explanation was that the curbs on public spending stipulated by the fund were encouraging governments in poor countries to use health aid for other needs. Countries that did not borrow from the IMF were found to have channelled 45 cents into health systems for every dollar of aid received.
The study by Dr David Stuckler of Oxford, Dr Sanjay Basu at the University of California, San Francisco and Professor Martin McKee at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at 34 low and middle-income countries that borrowed from the fund and 101 countries on a similar income that did not rely on IMF support.
Their analysis showed that health spending in countries borrowing from the IMF in the decade from 1996 to 2006 grew at half the rate of countries that did not have IMF programmes.
Stuckler said: "Countries seeking IMF support are likely to differ from countries that are not and a request for an IMF loan is often associated with severe economic problems. Nonetheless, even in such circumstances, it is reasonable to expect aid from donors to have at least some positive impact on health funding, especially given that health needs are often greatest at such times.
"This study suggests that countries relying on IMF loans are not spending the aid in the way it was intended. A change in loan policies is needed to lift the existing restrictions on finance ministers so they are no longer prevented from spending health aid on the people that urgently need medical help."
According to the research, countries borrowing from the IMF tended to do so when their economies were struggling and needed health aid the most. It concluded that changes are needed to loan conditions so that finance ministers in poor countries had more "fiscal space" to use health aid for its intended purposes – tackling disease and supporting public health projects.
[…]
4) Honduras: Right Wing Offers Constitutional Reforms
Weekly News Update on the Americas, Nicaragua Solidarity Network of Greater New York, January 16, 2011
http://weeklynewsupdate.blogspot.com/2011/01/wnu-1063-honduran-right-offers.html
On the evening of Jan. 12 Honduras’ National Congress passed reforms to Articles 5 and 213 of the 1982 Constitution that would open the way to changing key elements of the document- including the ban on presidential reelection – by popular referendum. The changes were proposed by the rightwing National Party (PN) of President Porfirio ("Pepe") Lobo Sosa and were backed by other parties, including the Liberal Party (PL) of former president José Manuel ("Mel") Zelaya Rosales (2006-2009); 103 of the 128 legislative deputies voted for the reforms.
Two different sessions of the National Congress need to approve an amendment, so the changes will not be official unless approved the next session, which begins on Jan. 25.
Commentators were quick to note that the military removed former president Zelaya from office in June 2009 on the pretext that a nonbinding referendum he was promoting could have resulted in similar changes to the Constitution. President Lobo and many of the current legislators supported the 2009 coup as a defense of the Constitution. "So something that was bad when Zelaya tried it is good now?" a reporter asked President Lobo on Jan. 12. "Let’s not mix water with oil," Lobo answered, claiming that Zelaya had been trying to extend his term.
Grassroots organizations denounced the new reforms as an inadequate response to the popular pressure for more extensive changes to the current Constitution, which was created at the end of nearly two decades of military dictatorship. The National Popular Resistance Front (FNRP), a coalition of many different groups opposing the 2009 coup, said it would continue to push for a constituent assembly with the power to rewrite the Constitution, the object of the June 2009 referendum. The FNRP says it gathered 1,342,876 signatures for such an assembly during a petition campaign in the spring and summer of 2010.
Tomás Andino, a former Congress member from the center-left Democratic Unification (UD) party, attributed the government’s reforms to international pressure. He said the US was following a policy of supporting "moderate coup supporters" and dissociating itself from the "recalcitrant coup supporters." According to Andino, Washington pushed the Lobo government in December to return Zelaya to Honduras from exile and to punish the "visible faces of the coup." The government’s failure to follow the US plan lost Honduras $215 million of US aid from the Millennium Challenge Corporation, Andino said, and could result in the loss of other aid.
5) Kinder Prison, Swifter Justice For US Detainees In Afghanistan
Farah Stockman, Boston Globe, January 18, 2011
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2011/01/18/kinder_prison_swifter_justice_for_us_detainees_in_afghanistan
Kandahar, Afghanistan – A few months after insurgents launched a rocket attack on Kandahar’s air base, US soldiers kicked down Khan Mohammed’s door and whisked the stout, ruddy-faced 27-year-old – blindfolded and handcuffed – to an American prison near Kabul.
Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, US forces have detained thousands of suspected enemy combatants without trial in facilities such as Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, Abu Ghraib in Iraq, and Bagram in Afghanistan. US officials say the detentions prevent attacks, but critics charge that innocent people have been unfairly held for years.
Mohammed’s story illustrates what US officials say is a dramatic shift in policy aimed at treating suspected enemies better, and releasing them sooner.
"We changed everything," said Vice Admiral Robert Harward, head of US detention operations in Afghanistan, who oversees a new, modern prison outside the boundaries of the Bagram Air Base, near Kabul, which officials say emphasizes rehabilitation and release.
Mohammed was taken to the new prison and was brought be fore a military judicial panel within weeks. But his case also reveals how, despite these improvements, the military’s opaque judicial process often seems arbitrary to the local populace and continues to leave some Afghans unappeased.
Sensitive evidence against Mohammed was never shared with him, nor explained to the public. Four months after he was seized, American soldiers issued him a gray coat, a white prayer cap, and a black bag containing a toothbrush, then set him free with little explanation. His quick release bolstered the belief among some Afghans that he should never have been arrested. Some also say an evolving system of judicial trials for detainees is unfair.
"The perception is still that it is like a black hole," said Hekmat Karzai, a cousin of Afghan President Hamid Karzai and director of the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies, an independent, nongovernmental organization in Kabul that offers legal defense to detainees.
Numbers released by American authorities tell a tale of speedier justice, however. In 2010, as US troops pushed deep into hostile territory, the US-led coalition arrested 6,223 Afghans, the largest number on record, Harward said. But about 5,000 were let go within days, often after tribal elders vowed to keep them out of trouble.
About 1,200 – who had the most damning evidence against them – were sent to the new $60 million US prison facility outside Bagram Air Base. A quarter of them were released within months without a trial.
[…] Not everyone is eligible for the rehabilitation programs or speedy release; 119 inmates have been detained for more than two years, about 80 of whom Harward said the United States intends to keep indefinitely because they are third-country nationals or Al Qaeda affiliates deemed a serious security threat outside Afghanistan.
[…]
6) Conflict On Afghan Efforts To Tax Foreign Contractors
Rod Nordland, New York Times, January 17, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/world/asia/18afghan.html
Kabul –
[…] The Ministry of Finance says its efforts to change that have run into robust resistance from the very people lecturing it about the rule of law: American and European allies who do not want to see their own contractors taxed.
Those contractors respond that taxing them is an absurdity, because foreign companies are here spending military and other foreign aid money that, by United States law and plain common sense, ought to be tax exempt.
"The international community should be happy we are implementing the rule of law," said Said Mubin Shah, deputy minister of finance for customs and revenue. "We should work together to solve this problem and impose the rule of law, because a lot of foreign contractors are evading their taxes."
[…] The effort to tax foreign contractors was first reported by The Washington Post on Monday. The newspaper said that while prime contractors were explicitly exempted by law from taxation on aid contracts, the Afghan government was sending tax notices to subcontractors, many of them American and other foreign companies, claiming they were not covered by that provision.
However, Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal on Monday disputed that in a brief interview, saying the government had made no tax demands on contractors or subcontractors working on aid or defense projects, who are exempt from taxes under a bilateral understanding called the Military Technical Agreement. However, he said, foreign contractors have received tax notices for income not covered by their military or aid contracts. "We respect the M.T.A.," he said.
[…] Mr. Shah said that many contractors were using their tax-exempt status to work on non-aid business that should be taxed. He gave the example of fuel oil importers working for the military, who are allowed to bring fuel into Afghanistan without paying tax, but who in many cases sell a portion of their imports into the private market. He says officials know this happens because a far greater amount of fuel is consumed privately than is ever taxed. Mr. Shah conceded that outright smuggling of fuel was also a factor, but not the only one.
"They are evading billions of afghanis this way, but when we ask them for proof about how much they brought in, they won’t say," he said. "The military won’t tell us how much either." One dollar is equivalent to about 43 afghanis, the local currency.
Furthermore, Mr. Shah said, when Finance Ministry tax inspectors have approached foreign contractors at their offices here, demanding to see their books, they have been turned away at gunpoint and, in some cases, beaten. He declined to provide specifics of such attacks, nor would he name any of the foreign contractors the ministry believes are tax evaders.
[…]
Israel/Palestine
7) Thousands of Israelis rally in defense of human and civil rights
Tel Aviv sees largest demonstration in years as people protest against parliamentary investigation into funding of rights groups
Harriet Sherwood, Guardian, Sunday 16 January 2011 13.59 GMT http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/16/thousands-israelis-rally-rights-organisations
Tel Aviv – Thousands of Israelis marched in Tel Aviv at the weekend in the biggest demonstration for years to protest against a series of attacks on civil and human rights organisations and a rise in anti-Arab sentiment.
Under the banner of the "Democratic Camp", a coalition of organisations and prominent individuals, the marchers heard speakers lambast the Israeli government, singling out the rightwing foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who is seen as threatening Israel’s democracy.
[…] The organizers of the march and rally hoped it would signal the beginning of the revival of Israel’s left and a fightback against the dominance of the right. Around 20,000 people attended the rally according to the organizers; the police said there were 10,000 present.
The galvanizing issue was the recent approval by the Knesset of a bill to set up a parliamentary investigation into the funding of civil and human rights groups. It has been seen by opponents across the political spectrum as a fundamental attack on democracy and reminiscent of a McCarthyite witch-hunt.
Following the vote, the opposition leader, Tzipi Livni, said an evil wind was blowing across Israel. Some in the crowd on Saturday evening held placards saying "Investigate me too".
Speakers at the rally cited other recent moves including a call by rabbis to ban Jews from selling or renting property to Arabs, a parliamentary vote in favour of a "loyalty oath" to be taken by new Israeli citizens, and the jailing of the activist Jonathan Pollack after taking part in a bicycle protest.
[…] Avraham Burg, a former Knesset speaker and a driving force behind the embryonic Democratic Camp, told the Guardian the situation was "an emergency".
"Israel is not a democracy any more. Technically it is, but the foundations of democracy – liberty, equality – are under threat. The rabbinical fatwas and political harassment are red lights. If we don’t stand up now, tomorrow it will be too late."
[…] Protesters held placards reading "Jews and Arabs will not be enemies" and "We will fight the regime of darkness", and both Israeli and Palestinian flags were waved. One participant said "it must be the end of the world" for her to join a demonstration on a Saturday evening.
Iran
8) Politically Confident, Iran Cuts Subsidies on Prices
William Yong, New York Times, January 16, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/world/middleeast/17iran.html
Tehran – After months of false starts, dire warnings and political wrangling, Iran has embarked on a sweeping program of cuts in its costly and inefficient system of subsidies on fuel and other essential goods that has put a strain on state finances and held back economic progress for years.
The government’s success in overcoming political obstacles to make the cuts and its willingness to risk social upheaval suggest that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have consolidated power after the internal fractures that followed his bitterly disputed re-election in 2009 – a development that some analysts believe could influence Iran’s position at nuclear talks in Istanbul this month.
"The initial success of the subsidy reform will increase the regime’s confidence generally," said Cliff Kupchan, a former State Department official who is now a director at the Washington-based Eurasia Group. "This could make them more assertive in the talks. But more importantly, a confident and unified regime is better positioned to reach consensus on some initial agreement."
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said recently that international sanctions had slowed Iran’s nuclear program, and the restrictions do seem to have disrupted sectors of the economy, particularly banking and export-related industries. But the sanctions do not seem to be the driving force behind the subsidy cuts.
Iran’s foreign exchange revenues also sank in recent years as oil prices fell from prerecession highs, creating greater budget pressures. But Tehran has long sought to cut the subsidies – even under the reformist administration of President Mohammad Khatami – and particularly for oil.
The logic is compelling: artificially low prices encourage greater consumption, leaving less oil to export for cash. And the higher oil prices rise, the greater the "opportunity costs" in lost exports. But the timing, whether for political or economic reasons, was never right to cut the subsidies.
While the government may be feeling economic pressure now, analysts say, the current program of cuts is principally a sign of its political strength, having vanquished the opposition that sprang up after the 2009 elections and stared down the government’s traditional conservative wing, which has challenged Mr. Ahmadinejad’s authority.
[…] The success of the subsidy cuts so far also seems to have contributed to a continuing reassessment of Mr. Ahmadinejad. He emerged in the diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks as something of a sober pragmatist – battling with retrograde forces in the government – rather than as the ranting extremist he seemed when he called for Israel to be wiped off the map. [The New York Times’ editors are well aware that this translation from Farsi is disputed; the controversy has been noted in the Times – JFP.] In October 2009, according to one of the cables, he argued for a nuclear compromise promoted by the United States that would have sent uranium out of the country for enrichment. And during the protests following the 2009 elections, he is reported to have argued for more freedom of the press – until a general in the Revolutionary Guards slapped him and shouted, "It is you who created this mess!" [As noted in a previous issue of the JFP News, the Leveretts have disputed the credibility of this account of the "slap," which was not reported elsewhere – JFP.] […] Energy use was the most obvious place to start in reducing subsidies. Iran’s population has doubled since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, but energy consumption is five times higher. Few educated Iranians still believe in the old Khomeinist doctrine that Iranians have a right to free energy because of their country’s oil wealth.
Until now, however, efforts to increase energy efficiency have been virtually nonexistent. Energy experts say that only 3 percent of buildings nationwide have adequate insulation, and until now it has been common for people to run their central gas heating 24 hours a day with their windows open to allow in fresh air. Official estimates put the cost of energy waste in Iran at $30 billion a year. "I used to be the kind of person to have all the lights on because I liked the house to be very bright," says Fariba, 28, an office worker. "But now I’ve changed my ways. I think it’s because they have been talking about it so much on the radio and television."
Some of the financial blow to consumers has been softened by cash payments of around $40 a month, which the government says it is paying to 60 million Iranians. The first two months’ payments were deposited in bank accounts in late October, but the money was not available for withdrawal until the middle of last month.
"They made so much fuss about the $40, they made it seem like $40,000," said a senior economist at a government-run financial institution, who lauded government officials as "social psychologists" who made the public more receptive to the subsidy cuts. He asked not to be quoted by name because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. "By putting the money in people’s accounts but not letting them spend it," he said, "somehow people became eager for the plan to begin."
[…]
Afghanistan
9) Iran says it will end Afghan fuel blockade
Deb Riechmann, Associated Press, Tuesday, January 18, 2011; 9:53 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/18/AR2011011800835.html
Kabul, Afghanistan – Iran told the Afghan government on Tuesday that it will stop blocking thousands of tanker trucks trying to move fuel into Afghanistan, authorities announced.
An Afghan government statement said the Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan, Fada Hussain Maliki, told President Hamid Karzai that the fuel tankers still stuck at the border would be allowed to enter Afghanistan during the next four days.
The Iranians began barring fuel trucks from crossing the Iran-Afghanistan border in late December, leaving about 2,500 trucks stuck at three crossings. The move, which Afghan officials have criticized as being tantamount to an embargo, has led fuel prices to rise as much as 70 percent.
Tehran has said the ban was linked to its recent decision to slash domestic fuel subsidies in a bid to cut costs and boost an economy squeezed by international sanctions. Afghan officials said Iran also had expressed concern that fuel shipments were supplying NATO forces in Afghanistan.
[…] One of the reasons the tankers remained stuck at the border was because Afghanistan had refused to disclose the amount of its domestic fuel consumption, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency in Tehran, which quoted a statement by the Iranian embassy in Kabul. The embassy statement said Iran had allowed 929 fuel tankers carrying more than 70,000 tons of fuel to enter Afghanistan since Dec. 20 and that future cross-border shipments would be based on a mutual agreement between the two nations.
[…]
Pakistan
10) Pakistan’s Failure to Hit Militant Sanctuary Has Positive Side for U.S.
Eric Schmitt, New York Times, January 17, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/world/asia/18terror.html
Washington – Pakistan’s refusal to attack militants in a notorious sanctuary on its northwest border may have created a magnet there for hundreds of Islamic fighters seeking a safe haven where they can train and organize attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan. But theirs is a congregation in the cross hairs.
A growing number of senior United States intelligence and counterinsurgency officials say that by bunching up there, insurgents are ultimately making it easier for American drone strikes to hit them from afar.
American officials are loath to talk about this silver lining to the storm cloud that they have long described building up in the tribal area of North Waziristan, where the insurgents run a virtual mini-state the size of Rhode Island. This is because they do not want to undermine the Obama administration’s urgent public pleas for Pakistan to order troops into the area, or to give Pakistan an excuse for inaction.
"We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without shutting down those safe havens," Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week, underscoring a major conclusion of the White House’s strategic review of Afghanistan policy last month.
But as long as the safe havens exist, they provide a rich hunting ground, however inadvertent it may be.
Pakistani Army operations in the other six of seven tribal areas near the border with Afghanistan have helped drive fighters from Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Haqqani network and other militant groups into North Waziristan, the one tribal area that Pakistan has not yet assaulted.
With several hundred insurgents largely bottled up there, and with few worries about accidentally hitting Pakistani soldiers battling militants or civilians fleeing a combat zone, the Central Intelligence Agency’s drones have attacked targets in North Waziristan with increasing effectiveness and have degraded Al Qaeda’s ability to carry out a major attack against the United States, the senior officials said.
[…]
Haiti
11) Haitian police take ex-dictator to court
Jonathan M. Katz, Associated Press, Tuesday, January 18, 2011; 2:23 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/18/AR2011011800610.html
Port-au-Prince, Haiti – Haitian police led ex-dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier out of his hotel and took him to court Tuesday without saying whether he was being charged with crimes committed under his brutal regime. His longtime companion denied that he had been arrested.
A contingent of police led the former dictator known as "Baby Doc" through the hotel and to a waiting SUV. He was not wearing handcuffs. Duvalier, 59, was calm and did not say anything, ignoring questions from journalists, as he was led away to cheers from some and jeers from others.
[…] He was removed from the hotel after meeting in private with senior Haitian judicial officials inside his hotel room amid calls by human rights groups and other for his arrest. The country’s top prosecutor and a judge were among those meeting with the former leader in the high-end hotel where he has been ensconced since his surprise return to Haiti on Sunday.
[…] Duvalier was forced into exile in 1986 in a mass uprising and had been living in exile in France. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and others have urged the Haitian government to arrest him for widespread abuses.
Duvalier assumed power in 1971 at age 19 following the death of his father, Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier. The father and son presided over one of the darkest chapters in Haitian history, a period a when thuggish government secret police force known as the Tonton Macoute tortured and killed opponents.
[…]
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