Just Foreign Policy News
November 17, 2011
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I) Actions and Featured Articles
Sen. Merkley introduces amendment to speed Afghan withdrawal
The amendment (#1174) says:
1) the President should expedite the transition of security responsibility to the government of Afghanistan;
2) the President shall devise a plan for expediting the drawdown of U.S. combat troops in Afghanistan and accelerating the transfer of security authority to Afghan authorities prior to December 2014; and
3) within 90 days, the President shall transmit to Congress a plan with a timetable and completion date for the accelerated transition of all military and security operations in Afghanistan to the Government of Afghanistan.
Current co-sponsors: Sherrod Brown (D-OH); Mike Lee (R-UT); Rand Paul (R-KY); Tom Udall (D-NM).
https://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/1071
Kate Gould: Nuclear Option Against Iran’s Economy Paves Way for War
Senators Mitch McConnell and Mark Kirk have proposed an amendment to the Defense Authorization Act that would bind the administration into sanctioning Iran’s central bank. Some U.S. officials have characterized this as the "nuclear option," in U.S. sanctions. Some Iranian officials have declared that any sanctions on the Central Bank would be treated as an act of war. The Obama Administration earlier rejected sanctioning Iran’s central bank on the grounds that the resulting run-up in gas prices would hurt the U.S. economy.
http://fcnl.org/blog/2c/nuclear_option_against_irans_economy_paves_way_for_war/
PBS Need to Know 11/18: The Pentagon: Hard times, hard choices
Former NBC Pentagon correspondent Fred Francis hosts a panel of military experts who discuss the wisdom of spending on multi-billion-dollar airplanes and ships, and whether it compromises troop training and safety. They also explore whether military health care benefits and pensions should be cut, if overseas troop deployments dating from the 1940s and 1950s are still necessary and how the Pentagon can deal with foreign threats without spending too much during difficult economic times. [Includes Winslow Wheeler of the Center for Defense Information, former warplane designer Pierre Sprey, and Andrew Bacevich. Sprey said of the Iraq war: "It is an enormously unjust war, not fought for any of the reasons put forth…Very simply, I don’t think we should be going to war for oil companies."]
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/uncategorized/need-to-know-november-18-2011-the-pentagon-hard-times-hard-choices/12374/
Friday, November 18 – Ralph Nader presents: Bruce Fein & Tony Shaffer debate David B. Rivkin & Lee Casey on Bush & Obama: War Crimes of Lawful Wars?
This DC event will be broadcast on C-span.
http://www.debatingtaboos.org/2011/11/bush-and-obama-war-crimes-or-lawful-wars/
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II) Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) An Aerospace Industries Association study purporting to show that cutting the military budget by $1 trillion could cost 1 million jobs misleads by ignoring the fact that putting the savings into other government programs or reducing taxes would create many more jobs than defense spending, Larry Korb writes in Politico. A 2009 study by economists at the University of Massachusetts found that spending on educational services creates almost three times as many jobs as military spending, and health care creates almost twice as many. Tax cuts create almost 30 percent more jobs than spending money on weapons.
2) Unesco officials say some important programs affecting US interests in Iraq are at risk because of Washington’s cutoff of money to Unesco, the New York Times reports. Unesco programs in Afghanistan will also be affected. The programs include projects to train the Iraqi judiciary and news media, to analyze Iraq’s fresh water resources better and to provide literacy training to Afghans. Unesco’s director-general, Irina Bokova, whose candidacy Washington strongly supported two years ago, has said that she hopes the budget cutoff will be temporary, and that Congress will annul the law or pass a waiver to it, allowing the president to judge whether a cutoff is in the interests of the United States. But Congressional action to reinforce the law seems more likely than action to soften or alter it, US officials say.
Syria
3) U.S. officials said the Commerce Department is investigating whether technology produced by US company Blue Coat Systems helped Syrian police monitor dissidents, the Washington Post reports. U.S. companies that wish to export devices that are "primarily useful for the surreptitious interception of wire, oral or electronic communications" must apply to Commerce for a license. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman said the Blue Coat technology being used in Syria had not been granted any export licenses.
Iran
4) Writing in Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt disputes the view that it is a foregone conclusion that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapons capability. Walt argues that doing so – as opposed to acquiring a "latent" nuclear capability that would allow Iran to quickly seek weapons if severely threatened – is not clearly in the interest of Iranian leaders, and therefore genuine diplomacy could persuade Iranian leaders not to do so.
5) Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak walked back a suggestion that, were he Iranian, he would "probably" seek a nuclear bomb which made headlines in Israel, Al Jazeera reports. During an appearance on the Charlie Rose show, Barak was asked if he would "want a nuclear weapon" were he a member of Iran’s government."Probably, probably. I know, it’s not – I don’t delude myself that they are doing it just because of Israel," he responded. "They look around, they see the Indians are nuclear, the Chinese are nuclear, Pakistan is nuclear … not to mention the Russians." Questioned about the remarks, Barak denied empathizing with the Iranians.
Egypt
6) Attempts by Egypt’s interim military rulers to hold on to power long after elections have for the first time prompted Washington to warn about the potential for new unrest, the New York Times reports. Some in Egypt have suggested the change in US tone may be intended to placate Egyptian public opinion rather than actually press the military to give up power.
Jacob Walles, deputy assistant secretary of state, met for the first time with leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood’s new Freedom and Justice Party, the Times says. "They confirmed that they are keen to support the democratic process, and they will accept any results of the elections and deal with any government that respects human rights and the rights of women and minorities and the democratic process," said Essam el-Erian, vice chairman of the party, who met with Walles. "And we are keen and eager to say that we respect the democratic process and the rights of all people according to the Constitution and the law."
Israel/Palestine
7) Israel allowed the first truckloads of a rare shipment of construction materials into Gaza on Wednesday to allow the reconstruction of 10 privately owned factories, AP reports. Until now only international projects have been allowed to import such materials. A Palestinian official said coming weeks would also see the export of agricultural products and several shipments of Gaza-made furniture in exceptions to the blockade. Permission was negotiated with Israel and international mediators.
Sari Bashi of the Israeli human rights group Gisha said those moves were too little to alleviate the economic distress in the Palestinian territory. "By banning Gaza residents from selling goods to Israel and the West Bank, Israel is preventing economic recovery for reasons that have nothing to do with security," she said.
Haiti
8) The last thing Haiti needs right now is President Martelly’s plan to reestablish Haiti’s discredited military, notorious for human rights abuses, says the Los Angeles Times in a editorial. Martelly says he doesn’t need international help and will pay for a new army by taking up to 5% from all ministries, but that’s disingenuous because the ministries are funded largely by foreign assistance.
9) A new study says most Haitians view the national police force favorably and see no need to bring back the disbanded army, AP reports. Three-fourths of those interviewed said they thought the Haitian National Police should be the country’s "primary security provider."
The latest round of interviews was done after the administration of President Michel Martelly announced it would restore the national army, which was disbanded in 1995 because of a long history of abuses and involvement in coups. Of those surveyed since the announcement, 65 percent "strongly disagreed" that the military should be re-established, while less than 1 percent "strongly agreed."
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Defense is not a jobs program
Lawrence Korb, Politico, November 16, 2011 09:26 PM EST
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=0F57A7F7-D769-42B4-BD70-35B262A3DFDE
[Korb was assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration.]
Defense is not now – nor was it ever intended to be – a jobs program.
So when an Aerospace Industries Association study – supported, unfortunately, by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) – attempts to warn Congress and the American people that cutting projected defense spending by as much as $1 trillion over the next decade, which might happen if sequestration takes effect, could cost 1 million jobs, the appropriate response is that this is irrelevant.
It is like arguing that defense is entitled to a specific share of the federal budget or gross domestic product. The federal government should base its defense spending on the strategy it develops to deal with the threats it faces – not on how many jobs it will create or the condition of our economy.
The AIA study, which was briefed to Congress last month, analyzed the impact of potential defense cuts on employment. This is not only inappropriate and conceptually flawed, it seems self-serving.
If AIA were really concerned about U.S. workers, it would admit that putting the defense savings into other government programs or reducing taxes would create many more jobs than defense spending.
Applying $1 billion to domestic spending priorities would create far more jobs than the same $1 billion spent on the military, according to a 2009 analysis by Robert Pollin and Heidi Garrett Peltier, economists at the University of Massachusetts.
For example, spending on educational services creates almost three times as many jobs as military spending, and health care creates almost twice as many. Tax cuts create almost 30 percent more jobs than spending money on weapons.
The AIA study also overestimates the amount of money the Defense Department spends on modernization – i.e., developing and buying new weapons and equipment as opposed to the costs of personnel, operations and maintenance. In the current defense budget, the AIA study assumes that 45 percent of the current budget goes for modernization.
Incorrect. The real number is 29 percent. Therefore, even with $1 trillion cut, the number of jobs that could be lost is about 600,000 – not 1 million.
[…] It is clear that the AIA study’s real purpose was to protect not U.S. workers but the group’s profits, which have exploded over the past decade, as spending on modernization doubled in real terms.
Moreover, AIA fails to mention that, in the past decade, as a result of the industry’s own business practices, the Defense Department spent $50 billion on weapons that were canceled. Cost overruns of weapons exceeded $300 billion.
Reducing the defense budget by as much as $1 trillion over the next decade will reduce defense spending in real terms to its fiscal year 2007 level. But it will still keep it above what we spent on average during the Cold War.
That $1 trillion can be used to lower our federal debt, which Adm. Michael Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the greatest threat to our national security.
Or it could be used to create at least 2 million new jobs – to replace the 600,000 that could be lost.
2) Cutting Off Unesco, U.S. May Endanger Programs In Iraq And Afghanistan
Steven Erlanger, New York Times, November 16, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/middleeast/cutting-off-unesco-us-may-put-iraq-programs-at-risk.html?ref=world
Paris – Some important programs affecting American interests in Iraq are at risk because of Washington’s cutoff of money to Unesco, officials of the organization say. Unesco programs in Afghanistan will also be affected, but to a lesser degree.
The programs include projects to train the Iraqi judiciary and news media, to analyze Iraq’s fresh water resources better and to provide literacy training to Afghans, the officials said. Some of the officials declined to allow their names to be used, but all of them wanted to illustrate the impact of the American cutoff of financing on the organization, which they regard as self-defeating, and to promote efforts in Congress to restore the money.
Late last month, Unesco – the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization – voted to approve full membership in the group for the Palestinians. That vote activated longstanding American legislation mandating the immediate cutoff of all financing for any United Nations organization that accepts the Palestinians as a full member.
The impact on the organization was immediate. The United States pays 22 percent of the budget of all United Nations agencies, and normally pays late, at the end of the calendar year. So the vote meant that the American contribution of about $80 million (including currency conversion costs) toward Unesco’s general budget of $643 million for 2011 was stopped, as well as equivalent contributions for following years. American extra-budgetary financing of $2 million and $3 million a year for specific projects supported by Washington, particularly those in Iraq, was also halted.
Unesco has important projects in Afghanistan, as well, including education, literacy training and special literacy training for the Afghan police. But in general those programs are paid for by Japan or other countries, not by Washington. They will be affected by the American cutoff, however, since the regular budget pays for Unesco offices and management staff.
George Papagiannis, an American, was until a month ago in charge of the Unesco office for Iraq, based in Baghdad. "The ramifications are serious," he said in a telephone interview. "The larger issue is how a law has undermined our capacity to deliver in a place very critical to American interests. We’ve invested gazillions of dollars in Iraq, and we can’t put a price on the lives of the Americans and Iraqis who died, and we promised to help build a new Iraq, something fresh and new in the Middle East, and then we hamstring ourselves."
Unesco, as a United Nations agency, "has a positive image, certainly in Iraq," said Mr. Papagiannis, who now works at Unesco headquarters. The United States, by contrast, was "an invading force in Iraq, with some negative connotations, even if it gave Iraqis something they hankered for. Unesco doesn’t come with that negative imagery."
In one odd and awkward example, the State Department signed a $1 million, multiyear contract on Sept. 23 for a project to promote the transparency of Iraq’s judiciary through legal and media training. But because the money had not been sent before the vote on Palestinian membership, American lawyers are studying whether the law supersedes the contract.
Casey Walther, a Unesco official currently working in Iraq on issues concerning clean water, said that access to water for drinking and agriculture was a vital part of Iraq’s future stability and thus important to Washington’s long-term interests as it pulls out its military forces. But the continuity of these programs is dependent on American money, he said. "That funding is now not coming through, so I’m in a very awkward situation with Iraqis." As a Unesco official, he said, "I had access to, and credibility with, Iraqis and now that’s in peril. And to be frank, I don’t know if I can replace that funding or get around it."
Among affected programs in Iraq are work with the Iraqi National Water Council, in particular to perform a groundwater survey using NASA satellites and American technology, to create a database of Iraq’s underground water supplies. Financing of $800,000 to $1 million was to come from the State Department to the Army Corps of Engineers, with a contribution from the Iraqi government of about $500,000 and about $7 million from the European Union for projects resulting from the study. But everything has been put on hold, officials said.
A similar study was planned for the drought-stricken Horn of Africa, which has about one million refugees, but that has also been shelved for now, Unesco officials said.
Other projects in Iraq include literacy training and education, largely supported by Qatar but managed by Unesco, which will be harmed by overall budget cuts, the officials said.
Already, Unesco’s director-general, Irina Bokova, whose candidacy Washington strongly supported two years ago, has instituted a freeze on all new spending, as well as a hiring freeze, travel restrictions and a cancellation at year’s end of the contracts of most outside consultants. She is seeking savings for future years, including cuts in staffing and offices, but it is difficult to achieve savings of much more than $35 million a year, officials said.
She has said that she hopes the budget cutoff will be temporary, and that Congress will annul the law or pass a waiver to it, allowing the president to judge whether a cutoff is in the interests of the United States. But Congressional action to reinforce the law seems more likely than action to soften or alter it, American officials say.
In Afghanistan, Unesco is involved in several major literacy efforts, including a $35 million program meant to reach 600,000 people in 18 of the 34 provinces, 60 percent of them women.
Syria
3) U.S. probing use of surveillance technology in Syria
Sari Horwitz and Shyamantha Asokan, Washington Post, Thursday, November 17, 2:36 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-probes-use-of-surveillance-technology-in-syria/2011/11/17/gIQAS1iEVN_story.html
The Commerce Department is investigating whether technology produced by a California company helped Syrian police monitor dissidents amid a bloody nationwide crackdown there, U.S. officials said Thursday.
Commerce officials are attempting to determine whether the company, Blue Coat Systems of Sunnyvale, Calif., had prior knowledge that its equipment and software was being used by the Syrian government, according to several U.S. officials.
[…] The company has previously said it did not sell equipment or software to the Syrian government, but the company has acknowledged that its products are being used in Syria and could have been obtained through a third party. U.S. sanctions prohibit sales of most goods to Syria.
[…] News reports about Syria’s use of Blue Coat software prompted concern in the State Department and among members of Congress. Three senators on Thursday urged the Obama administration to investigate whether Blue Coat and another California-based company had provided "tools of repression" to Damascus.
[…] News reports in recent months have revealed that authoritarian governments have used U.S. and other Western technology to monitor dissidents and other citizens. In some cases, middle men have facilitated the transfer of this technology to governments.
U.S. companies that wish to export devices that are "primarily useful for the surreptitious interception of wire, oral or electronic communications" must apply to Commerce for a license, according to the export administration regulations.
Sales by U.S. companies to Syria are illegal under sanctions imposed by President George W. Bush in 2004. When selling any items to countries under U.S. sanctions, a license is required to override these restrictions.
At a congressional hearing on Nov. 9, Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman said the Blue Coat technology being used in Syria had not been granted any export licenses.
Iran
4) Stopping an Iranian bomb
Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy, Wednesday, November 16, 2011
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/15/stopping_an_iranian_bomb
In a thoughtful dissection of the seemingly endless debate on Iran’s nuclear program (and the various proponents of military action), Andrew Sullivan says "For my part, I cannot see how we can prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb." Sullivan is no fan of military action, but I suspect his view is widespread. Some think the inevitability of Iran’s getting the bomb is a reason to attack them now; for others, it is an argument for turning to robust containment.
I’m against the former and would favor the latter if necessary, but I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that Iran will actually go forward and acquire a nuclear weapons capability. In particular, I can think of two good reasons why a smart Iranian leader would not want to cross the nuclear threshold.
First, an Iranian nuclear weapons capability means that they will automatically be suspected if a nuclear detonation takes place anywhere in the world. Right now, Iran does not have to fear retaliation should an act of nuclear terrorism occur, because we know with high confidence that they have no weapons at present. But if the Islamic Republic were known to have a nuclear weapons capability, and a terrorist used a weapon somewhere, I’d bet that it would be pretty high up on the suspect list. Nuclear forensics could in theory rule them out, but these techniques are not perfectly reliable and it’s not obvious how clearly anyone would be thinking at that awful moment. Powerful countries like the United States have a way of lashing out when they are attacked, and they might not be all that careful to make sure they had the right perpetrator. After all, Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11, but the Bush administration used that attack as a pretext to gin up a campaign against him. So Iran might want to think twice about crossing the nuclear threshold and inviting retaliation, even for acts in which it was not involved.
Second, and equally important, Iran has by far the greatest power potential of any country in the Persian Gulf. It has more people, more economic potential, and plenty of oil and gas too. If it ever had competent political leadership it would easily be the strongest conventional power in its neighborhood. But if it gets an overt nuclear capability, that act would raise the likelihood that other states in the region (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, even Iraq) would follow suit. It is far from certain that they would, but it would certainly make it more likely. And if they do, this step would partially negate Iran’s conventional advantages.
Accordingly, a farsighted Iranian strategist should want to acquire a "latent" nuclear capability (and thus the ability to get a bomb quickly if needed), while making it clear to others that it had not crossed the line. (If I had to guess, that is what I think they are trying to do.) This means that it may be possible to convince them not to weaponize, mostly by not creating a situation where they decide that having an overt deterrent is worth the costs and risks. Needless to say, U.S. and Israeli policy is the exact opposite today: we ramp up sanctions, talk openly of regime change, conduct various acts of sabotage and/or covert action against them (the STUXNET virus, assassinations of Iranian scientists, etc.), and basically behave in ways that we would regard as acts of war if anyone did them to us. And then we wonder why Iran’s leaders are so reluctant to end their nuclear program.
[…] The only approach that stands any chance of success is genuine diplomacy (as opposed to the Obama administration’s half-hearted version of same). Sadly, we aren’t going to see any serious diplomacy in an election year, and probably not afterwards. Sullivan may turn out to be right, but not because there was no way to prevent an Iranian bomb. If Tehran eventually joins the nuclear club, it will be at least in part because we never made serious, smart and sophisticated effort to persuade them not to.
5) Barak tries damage control after ‘Iran gaffe’
Israeli defence minister walks back from comments that appeared to empathise with Tehran’s alleged nuclear quest.
Al Jazeera, 17 Nov 2011 20:13
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/2011111711051344516.html
Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, has reassured Israelis about his government’s resolve after he appeared to empathise with Iran’s alleged quest for nuclear weapons during a US television interview.
Barak’s suggestion that, were he Iranian, he would "probably" seek the bomb made headlines in Israel, where the government feels threatened by the Islamic republic but has looked to world powers to intervene with tough diplomacy.
Taking time off from a visit to Canada to brief Israel’s main radio broadcasters, Barak said on Thursday that his remarks, which were in English, had been partly misunderstood.
[…] During a Wednesday appearance on the PBS program Charlie Rose, Barak was asked if he would "want a nuclear weapon" were he a member of Iran’s government.
"Probably, probably. I know, it’s not – I don’t delude myself that they are doing it just because of Israel," he responded. "They look around, they see the Indians are nuclear, the Chinese are nuclear, Pakistan is nuclear … not to mention the Russians."
Questioned about the remarks, Barak denied empathising with the Iranians and pointed out that he had also argued that the government there threatens Middle East stability and safeguards against the spread of nuclear weaponry.
[…]
Egypt
6) U.S. Hones Warnings to Egypt as Military Stalls Transition
David D. Kirkpatrick and Steven Lee Myers, New York Times, November 16, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/middleeast/us-warns-egypt-as-military-stalls-transition.html
Cairo – Brazen attempts by Egypt’s interim military rulers to hold on to power long after elections have elicited a sharp reaction domestically and for the first time have prompted Washington to warn about the potential for new unrest.
After months of mixing gentle pressure with broad support for the ruling military council, the Obama administration has sharpened its tone, senior administration officials say, expressing concern that the failure to move to civilian control could undermine the defining revolt of the Arab Spring.
The shift in tone is part of a difficult balancing act for Washington, which is keen to preserve its ties to the military and its interests in the region, chiefly Egypt’s role in maintaining peace with Israel. But Washington also hopes to win favor with Egypt’s newly empowered political opposition while avoiding the appearance of endorsing the military’s stalled transition to democracy. All things considered, some here have suggested, the change in tone may be intended to placate Egyptian public opinion rather than actually press the military to give up power.
"I think they are working for their own interests, particularly regarding the slow transition of power," said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, a prominent liberal activist who was among the leaders of the Egyptian revolution. "The U.S. wants to guarantee that the coming government will be on good terms – I won’t say loyal, but friendly – and the support for SCAF is related to that." SCAF is the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt’s ruling military council.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton underscored the shift in a speech last week that her aides later said was a deliberate warning to the military council, which assumed power after President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster. The military had initially pledged to hand over control to civilians by September, but it now says that a presidential election will not occur before 2013. And last week it laid out a blueprint for the next constitution, giving the military special political powers and protection from civilian oversight into perpetuity.
"If, over time, the most powerful political force in Egypt remains a roomful of unelected officials, they will have planted the seeds for future unrest, and Egyptians will have missed a historic opportunity," Mrs. Clinton warned. "When unelected authorities say they want to be out of the business of governing," the United States expects them "to lay out a clear road map" and "abide by it," she added.
Given Washington’s long support for Mr. Mubarak, and Mrs. Clinton’s comment last month approving of the military’s extended timetable for electing a civilian president, there was suspicion over Washington’s intentions. The shift occurred at the same time as a broader effort by the Obama administration to counter anti-American sentiment and reach out to opposition leaders across the political spectrum.
The United States "wants to have the cake and eat it, too," said Nabil Fahmy, a former Egyptian ambassador to Washington, arguing that the United States wants to promote democracy without dealing with the pressure it would put on American interests in the region.
The military’s attempts to protect its power and privileges indefinitely have created an awkward situation for Washington. The United States, through the Pentagon in particular, has long nurtured close ties with the Egyptian military, which still receives $1.3 billion in American aid each year. American officials hope that whatever government emerges will continue to support American policy, including maintaining ties with Israel and distance from Iran.
At the same time, the United States’ standing in public opinion in Egypt and around the region continues to suffer because of decades of support for undemocratic governments like the military-backed system that controlled Egypt under Mr. Mubarak. Remaining aloof from the debate over the military’s future role here risks reinforcing those criticisms at a time when democratic changes are giving public opinion new weight.
As part of its broader outreach, the Obama administration has also met with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group whose political party is poised to win a major role in the country’s new Parliament and remains the biggest political counterweight to the military council.
Jacob Walles, a deputy assistant secretary of state, met for the first time this week with the leaders of the Brotherhood’s newly formed Freedom and Justice Party at its new headquarters in Cairo. While American diplomats have had intermittent contacts for years with Brotherhood lawmakers in the Egyptian Parliament, officials here said Mr. Walles’s meeting appeared to underscore Mrs. Clinton’s pledges to cooperate with Islamist parties that respect democracy.
Others said it might instead have been a sign that Washington simply realized that the Brotherhood was certain to play a crucial role in Egypt’s future and was likely to win a large bloc of seats in the parliamentary elections that begin this month.
"They confirmed that they are keen to support the democratic process, and they will accept any results of the elections and deal with any government that respects human rights and the rights of women and minorities and the democratic process," said Essam el-Erian, a veteran Brotherhood leader and the vice chairman of its new party, who met with Mr. Walles. "And we are keen and eager to say that we respect the democratic process and the rights of all people according to the Constitution and the law."
[…]
Israel/Palestine
7) Israel allows construction materials into Gaza to rebuild 10 factories
Associated Press, November 16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israel-allows-construction-materials-into-gaza-to-rebuild-10-factories/2011/11/16/gIQAKGfeRN_story.html
Jerusalem – Israel allowed the first truckloads of a rare shipment of construction materials into Gaza on Wednesday to allow the reconstruction of 10 privately owned factories, the Israeli military and Palestinian officials said.
Until now only international projects have been allowed to import such materials, which Israel restricts because of concerns they could be used by Gaza militants who regularly launch rockets at Israeli towns.
Hamas-ruled Gaza is subject to an Israeli and Egyptian blockade that includes restrictions on the movement of goods and people.
In Gaza, Palestinian government coordinator Raed Fattouh said the first two trucks with materials entered Wednesday. The military says several dozen trucks will be allowed in.
The factories being rebuilt were destroyed or damaged in fighting in 2009, when Israel invaded to try to stop near-daily rocket salvos.
Fattouh said the coming weeks would also see the export of agricultural products and several shipments of Gaza-made furniture in exceptions to the blockade. Permission was negotiated with Israel and international mediators. Israel significantly eased limits on imports last year but kept building materials on its list of restrictions.
Sari Bashi of the Israeli human rights group Gisha, which monitors the Gaza blockade, said those moves were too little to alleviate the economic distress in the Palestinian territory. "By banning Gaza residents from selling goods to Israel and the West Bank, Israel is preventing economic recovery for reasons that have nothing to do with security," she said.
[…]
Haiti
8) Haiti doesn’t need an army
President Michel Martelly is expected to announce a plan to reconstitute the military. But the last thing Haiti needs is a $25-million plan to rebuild a failed institution.
Editorial, Los Angeles Times, November 17, 2011
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinionla/la-ed-haiti-20111117,0,824463.story
Haiti has been without an army for more than 15 years. This week, however, President Michel Martelly is expected to announce a plan to reconstitute the military. That’s unfortunate. The last thing Haiti needs right now – and the list of needs is extensive in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake and an ongoing cholera epidemic – is a $25-million plan to rebuild a failed institution.
The country’s military was disbanded in 1995 after decades of brutal repression and violence against civilians, including the killing of some 3,000 people during the 1991 coup that ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. By the time Aristide was brought back to power four years later by the U.S., Haiti’s military was better known for its atrocious human rights record and putsches than for protecting the Haitian people.
Martelly insists the new army will look nothing like its notorious predecessor. Instead, it will serve as a kind of hybrid civil defense force that can provide assistance during natural disasters but can also protect public safety. That sounds great. But Martelly has yet to outline what safeguards would be adopted to prevent abuses or to ensure that former soldiers tied to past violence don’t reenlist.
So far, Martelly’s proposal has done little but alienate donor countries, which have quietly indicated they won’t provide funding for it. That’s a problem given that foreign aid accounts for nearly 70% of the government’s budget. Martelly says he doesn’t need international help and will pay for a new army by taking up to 5% from all ministries, but again, that’s disingenuous because the ministries are funded largely by foreign assistance. Taking money from them would simply mean Haiti would have less to spend on education, housing, roads and other much-needed public projects.
No one disputes that Haiti must eventually assume authority for its own security. The U.N. peacekeeping mission that has patrolled the streets since 2004 is to begin pulling out as early as next year. Public safety remains an issue. Crime, including kidnappings, rapes and other violence, persists, especially in the tattered tent cities that are home to thousands displaced by the earthquake.
Martelly’s decision to revive the military has prompted speculation that, like some Haitian presidents before him, he will use it to shore up his power and shut down his opponents. That’s hard to discount given his ties to supporters of former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier, who relied heavily on both the military and his secret police force, the Tonton Macoutes, to stay in power. Martelly needs to understand that an army is something Haiti just can’t afford. Instead, he ought to invest in the country’s national police. That’s a plan that international donors and the United States have said they will back and therefore wouldn’t further tax a beleaguered nation.
9) Study Suggests Homicides Dropping in Haiti Capital
Trenton Daniel, AP, Thu, Nov. 17, 2011
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/16/2505692/study-suggests-homicides-dropping.html
Haiti’s capital has seen a significant drop in homicide rates in recent years despite a public perception that the poor Caribbean country is rife with crime and violence, two social scientists said Wednesday.
In addition, most Haitians view the national police force favorably and see no need to bring back the disbanded army, according to the preliminary findings of a study shared with The Associated Press.
The findings contradict a widespread view that the Haitian National Police force is unpopular and people have felt under siege from violent crime both before and after the devastating earthquake nearly two years ago.
International development experts Robert Muggah and Athena Kolbe collected their data from four separate household surveys done from 2005 through last month with the help of Haitian researchers. Two of the surveys each included 1,000 people who moved into the settlement camps that sprang up after the January 2010 quake.
The experts say their study, supported Canada’s International Development Research Center, indicates Haiti has seen a sharp drop in homicide rates in recent years, based on trends seen in ther interviews. Homicides in three densely populated neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince dropped from 19 per 100,000 people in 2004, when former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was ousted, to three per 100,000 in 2009, their report says.
"We found that the security situation wasn’t as lawless as portrayed in Haiti," said Robert Muggah, a fellow of international relations at the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil.
Kolbe, a doctoral candidate in social work and political science at University of Michigan, said the decline in reported homicides coincided with a trend that Haitian police are being used less as a political tool.
The findings echo global crime trends.
Haiti does not feature among the top 58 most violent countries classified by the recently released Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development, which sponsors studies on crime trends worldwide. Haiti is also an outlier in the Western Hemisphere. Jamaica, ranked third the most violent country in the world, had an average annual homicide rate of 60 per 100,000 from 2004 to 2009. Honduras had 50 per 100,000.
When people were asked how serious an issue crime, nearly half of those interviewed said "very minor."
But the problem seemed more severe in the camps, when compared to the general population. More than 1 percent of those interviewed from the general population said they had been victims of physical assaults, while 15 percent in the camps did.
The survey found respect for the national police even though the force has long been associated with rights abuses and corruption allegations. More than half of the nearly 3,000 people interviewed in 2010 said they would go to a police officer if they were robbed, compared to 36 percent who said they would turn to a neighbor, friend or relative.
[…] Three-fourths of those interviewed said they thought the Haitian National Police should be the country’s "primary security provider."
The latest round of interviews was done after the administration of President Michel Martelly announced it would restore the national army, which was disbanded in 1995 because of a long history of abuses and involvement in coups.
Of those surveyed since the announcement, 65 percent "strongly disagreed" that the military should be re-established, while less than 1 percent "strongly agreed."
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