Just Foreign Policy News
June 18, 2010
Obey’s Afghanistan: At Long Last, It’s Guns vs. Butter
At long last, Rep. David Obey has called the question: which is more important to America – saving teachers’ jobs, or pointless killing in Afghanistan? This could be the beginning of the end of the Washington consensus that wars and other military spending exist on their own fiscal planet. There is a freight train coming called "deficit reduction," and if cuts in military spending aren’t on board the train, the cargo will be cuts in Social Security and Medicare benefits.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/obeys-afghanistan-at-long_b_617302.html
Virtual Brown Bag with Stephen Kinzer
Our June 11th Virtual Brown Bag with Stephen Kinzer is now on the web. Kinzer spoke about his new book, RESET: Iran, Turkey, and America’s Future and spoke about recent events involving Turkey and Iran.
http://justforeignpolicy.org/kinzertalk
Get the book
http://bit.ly/9mT4Fz
Is "South of the Border" coming to your town?
Oliver Stone’s powerful new documentary about progressive change in Latin America opens in New York June 25. JFP President Mark Weisbrot co-wrote the script. http://southoftheborderdoc.com/in-theatres/
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Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced Thursday that the security cabinet had agreed to relax Israel’s blockade on Gaza, but as it turns out, no binding decision was ever made during the cabinet meeting, Haaretz reports. The Prime Minister’s Office issued a press release in English following the meeting, sent to foreign diplomats, which was substantially different than the Hebrew announcement – according to the English text, a decision was made to ease the blockade, but in the Hebrew text there was no mention of any such decision.
2) Israel’s announcement that it would ease but not lift the blockade of Gaza has been met with dismay by UN agencies and relief organizations, the Irish Times reports. UNRWA spokesman Christopher Gunness said: "We must talk about lifting the siege and blockade, which is regarded as a violation of international law. You cannot have half a violation of international law." He referred to a statement by the head of the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs: "Everything should be allowed into Gaza, unless there is a specific and legitimate security reason" for exclusion.
3) Discouraging reports from Afghanistan should make Obama more determined to keep his promise to begin withdrawing troops in summer 2011, argues Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post. A withdrawal deadline that is based not on the calendar but on an amorphous and elusive set of "conditions" is an open-ended commitment. McCain complains that all the competing Afghan factions are "making the necessary accommodations for a post-American Afghanistan." But this outcome is not only inevitable, it’s what we claim to want. Sooner or later, there will be a "post-American Afghanistan," and some measure of power and influence will be held by Afghans who now consider themselves loyal to the Taliban. Obama won the nation’s forbearance by making a promise that the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops would begin next year. Americans should expect him to keep his word – and insist that he does.
4) Senator Feingold said in a letter to Secretary of State Clinton that the US should press the Somali military to halt any use of child soldiers and "until we have that confirmation, I believe it is inappropriate to continue providing the T.F.G. with security assistance," the New York Times reports. US officials said they have urged the Somali military not to recruit children but that with few US personnel in Somalia, it is impossible to guarantee this does not happen.
5) A joint panel of U.S. and Vietnamese policymakers, citizens and scientists released an action plan for Agent Orange cleanup, urging the U.S. and other donors to provide $30 million annually over 10 years to clean up sites still contaminated by dioxin, AP reports. Washington has been slow to address the issue, quibbling for years over the need for more scientific research. The Vietnam Red Cross estimates up to 3 million Vietnamese children and adults have suffered health problems related to Agent Orange exposure.
Kyrgyzstan
6) Analysts say U.S. – Russian competition for military basing rights in Kyrgyzstan destabilized the government, helping to bring about the present collapse and violence, the New York Times reports. "Kyrgyzstan is turning into a collapsing state, or at least part of it is, and what was partially responsible is this geopolitical tug-of-war we had," said Alexander Cooley, who included Manas in a recent book about the politics of military bases. "In our attempts to secure these levers of influence and support the governing regime, we destabilized these state institutions. We are part of that dynamic."
Iran
7) An adviser to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan says Turkey wants to see Iran go ahead with the nuclear fuel swap, NPR reports. Ibrahim Kalin says Turkey is encouraging Iran to stay at the table, and "that is a message we are getting from the U.S. administration also." State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley says if the fuel-swap deal is improved, it could be a step toward the broader discussions that the U.S. and its partners are seeking. "We are encouraging Turkey to continue to tell Iran that there is an opportunity for diplomacy and dialogue and we will see how Iran responds," Crowley says.
Iraq
8) More and more Iraqis are seeking medical treatment for trauma-induced mental illnesses, and the medical community is unable to keep up, the Washington Post reports. Across Iraq, 100 psychiatrists are available to serve a population of about 30 million people, Iraq’s psychiatric association says.
Israel/Palestine
9) Israel’s best hope for living with political Islam is the kind of modus vivendi that Egypt, Jordan and other secular Arab regimes have reached with their local versions of Hamas, argues Ian Lustick in Forbes. While heavily subsidized Palestinian secularists maintain a precarious hold on the West Bank, at least as long as free elections are not held, in Gaza the Islamists are having the same success they have had in Lebanon and Turkey, and would have in Jordan, Egypt, and elsewhere, were honest elections permitted.
10) Some Israeli analysts say ‘Iranophobia’ has too much influence in Israel, the Christian Science Monitor reports. "We are making them stronger than they are," says David Menashri, director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. "To refer to Iran as an ‘existential threat’ – I refuse to use this term – you give Iran greater credit than they deserve…. What signal does it send to our own people, that the day Iran should have nuclear weapons you should leave the country, because your existence is threatened?
Yemen
11) The Obama administration is considering partially lifting its suspension of all transfers of Guantanamo detainees to Yemen following a court ruling that found "overwhelming" evidence to support a Yemeni’s claim he has been unlawfully detained by the US for more than eight years, the Washington Post reports. "This is a bad case to argue. There is nothing there. The bottom line is: We don’t have anything on this kid," said an Administration official. As many as 20 more Yemenis could be ordered released by the courts for lack of evidence to justify their continued detention.
Colombia
12) A new report reveals that the Colombian intelligence agency’s scandal went well beyond illegally spying on key players in the country’s democracy, the report’s authors write in the Huffington Post. The Department of Administrative Security actually orchestrated active efforts to sabotage the activities of Colombian judges, journalists, human rights defenders, international organizations and political opponents.
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Israel announces let-up to Gaza siege – but only in English
Prime Minister’s office issues two statements, one in English announcing plan to ease blockade, one in Hebrew omitting to mention the decision.
Barak Ravid, Haaretz, 17.06.10
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-announces-let-up-to-gaza-siege-but-only-in-english-1.296809
The Prime Minister’s Office announced on Thursday that the security cabinet had agreed to relax Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip, but as it turns out, no binding decision was ever made during the cabinet meeting.
The Prime Minister’s Office issued a press release in English following the meeting, which was also sent to foreign diplomats, was substantially different than the Hebrew announcement – according to the English text, a decision was made to ease the blockade, but in the Hebrew text there was no mention of any such decision.
[…] During both meetings, many ministers voiced their opinions regarding the blockade, and the defense establishment presented the plans for the "liberalization" of the blockade. However, upon concluding the discussions, the ministers did not vote on any binding practical draft of the decision. In fact, the policy by which the government is currently bound is the one decided by the security cabinet during the previous term of former prime minister Ehud Olmert, by which the blockade remains as it was.
Two official statements came out of the Prime Minister’s Office in regard to the security cabinet meeting – one in Hebrew for the Israeli media and another in English for the foreign media and foreign diplomats. The English version said that "It was agreed to liberalize the system by which civilian goods enter Gaza [and] expand the inflow of materials for civilian projects that are under international supervision." The Hebrew version addressed mainly remarks made by Netanyahu, but failed to mention any decision or agreement.
[…] In addition to the English statement, word was sent to foreign consulates and embassies indicating that the decision made by the security cabinet will be implemented immediately. However, according to the officials charged with the actual monitoring of the transfer of goods into Gaza, they have not been notified of any change in policy as a result of the cabinet meeting.
[…]
2) Widespread dismay at limited extent of proposed measures
Michael Jansen, Irish Times, Fri, Jun 18, 2010
UN agencies, NGOs and Palestinian politicians and citizens are critical of siege’s partial lifting
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0618/1224272792116.html
Israel’s announcement that it would ease but not lift the blockade of Gaza has been met with dismay by politicians, UN agencies, relief organisations and citizens of Gaza.
[…] Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the UN Relief and Works Agency, which cares for Palestinian refugees, said: "We look at deeds not words. There is a massive amount of rebuilding to do in Gaza. Four thousand homes were destroyed, another 17,000 damaged during the [2008-09] war. The agency needs to repair its schools and build 100 new schools for 39,000 children.
"We must talk about lifting the siege and blockade, which is regarded as a violation of international law. You cannot have half a violation of international law."
Mr Gunness said that since 2007, the UN agency has only been able to get enough construction material to finish off 151 almost completed housing units in Khan Younis, Gaza.
He referred to a statement to the UN Security Council by the head of the Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Robert Serry, who said: "Everything should be allowed into Gaza, unless there is a specific and legitimate security reason" for exclusion.
[…] Amjad Shawa, co-ordinator for Palestinian-non-governmental organisations, characterised the Israeli shift as a "smart siege" that will not ease the harsh conditions under which Gazans live. "We are asking for freedom, basic rights, free access and safe access."
Simply allowing in more goods "will increase dependency. We want the 4,000 factories that stopped working two years ago to begin production again, 3,500 fishermen to be allowed to go to sea and fish, our 15,000-20,000 university graduates to find work.
"We will continue our efforts with other international movements to increase pressure on Israel to end the blockade."
[…]
3) Our Must Keep Deadline
Eugene Robinson, Washington Post, Friday, June 18, 2010; A29
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/17/AR2010061704568.html
When he ordered his escalation of the war in Afghanistan, President Obama pledged that U.S. troops "will begin to come home" in the summer of 2011. Discouraging reports from the war zone should make him more determined to keep his promise – and Americans more insistent on holding him to it.
In his Capitol Hill testimony this week, Gen. David Petraeus – the godfather of Obama’s 30,000-troop Afghanistan surge – sought mightily to carve out some wiggle room. "We have to be very careful with timelines," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee. The July 2011 deadline for beginning a troop withdrawal depends on the assumption that "conditions" are favorable, Petraeus said.
But wait a minute. Another way to describe a withdrawal deadline that is based not on the calendar but on an amorphous and elusive set of "conditions" would be to call it an open-ended commitment. This is precisely what Obama said he was not giving to Afghanistan’s corrupt, feckless and increasingly unreliable government.
[…] In Washington, the hawkish interpretation of events is that the timeline itself is now the problem – that, in the words of Sen. John McCain, it tells "the key actors inside and outside of Afghanistan that the United States is more interested in leaving than succeeding in this conflict."
This sounds like a reasonable argument until you think about it. Karzai, the Taliban, the warlords and the Afghan public already know that U.S. and NATO forces will leave someday. The only way to make them think otherwise would be to announce that we intend to stay forever – and clearly that’s not the case. From the Afghan point of view, it doesn’t make much difference whether the interlopers depart in one year or in five.
[…] McCain complains that all the competing Afghan factions are "making the necessary accommodations for a post-American Afghanistan." But this outcome is not only inevitable, it’s what we claim to want. Sooner or later, there will be a "post-American Afghanistan," and some measure of power and influence will be held by Afghans who now consider themselves loyal to the Taliban. Corruption will not vanish, nor will the poppy and marijuana fields, nor the system of clan-based loyalties that has survived a millennium’s worth of foreign invasions.
It’s not that Afghanistan is some sort of hopeless case. It’s just that thinking that a U.S.-led experiment in nation-building – and that’s what we’re attempting, even if we call it counterinsurgency – can impose a whole new organizational template on the place in a year or two, or even 10, is pure fantasy.
Whether or not Obama adheres to his announced deadline matters less to the Afghans than it does to us. U.S. casualties are increasing, as was anticipated; Obama has tripled U.S. troop levels since he took office; and the battle for Kandahar will be bloody. Our European allies are squirming, balking, complaining and looking for the exit. As time goes on, this will become even more of a primarily American war.
The question is how much more the war will cost in precious young lives and scarce resources. Obama won the nation’s forbearance by making a promise that the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops would begin next year. Americans should expect him to keep his word – and insist that he does.
4) Somalia: U.S. Military Aid Denounced
Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, June 17, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/18/world/africa/18briefs-Somalia.html
A second United States senator complained Thursday about American military assistance to Somalia’s government, which the United Nations considers one of the most flagrant users of child soldiers in the world. Senator Russ Feingold, Democrat of Wisconsin, said in a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton that the American government should press the Somali military to halt any use of child soldiers and "until we have that confirmation, I believe it is inappropriate to continue providing the T.F.G. with security assistance." American officials said they have urged the Somali military not to recruit children but that with few American personnel in Somalia, it is impossible to guarantee this does not happen.
5) $300 mln to cope with Agent Orange in Vietnam
Margie Mason, Associated Press, Wednesday, June 16, 2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/16/AR2010061601319.html
Hanoi, Vietnam – Thirty-five years after the Vietnam War, a $300 million price tag has been placed on the most contentious legacy still tainting U.S.-Vietnam relations: Agent Orange.
A joint panel of U.S. and Vietnamese policymakers, citizens and scientists released an action plan Wednesday, urging the U.S. government and other donors to provide an estimated $30 million annually over 10 years to clean up sites still contaminated by dioxin, a toxic chemical used in the defoliant.
The funding would also be used to treat Vietnamese suffering from disabilities, including those believed linked to exposure to Agent Orange, which was dumped by the U.S. military in vast quantities over former South Vietnam to destroy crops and jungle cover shielding communist guerrilla fighters.
Washington has been slow to address the issue, quibbling for years with its former foe over the need for more scientific research to show that the herbicide sprayed by U.S. aircraft during the war caused health problems and birth defects among Vietnamese.
"We are talking about something that is a major legacy of the Vietnam War, a major irritant in this important relationship," said Walter Isaacson, co-chair of the U.S.-Vietnam Dialogue Group on Agent Orange/Dioxin that released the report. "The cleanup of our mess from the Vietnam War will be far less costly than the Gulf oil spill that BP will have to clean up."
[…] Isaacson said he was hopeful the U.S. government will provide at least half the $300 million needed by 2020, with corporations, foundations and other donors supplying the rest.
[…] The Vietnam Red Cross estimates up to 3 million Vietnamese children and adults have suffered health problems related to Agent Orange exposure. But the U.S. says the number is much lower, with many Vietnamese birth defects instead likely resulting from other health and environmental reasons, including malnutrition.
"We said, ‘Let’s leave aside exactly who’s to blame for which illness that might have occurred,’" Isaacson, president and CEO of the Aspen Institute, a nonprofit group that promotes international dialogue, said by phone from Washington. "It’s a mess we made … and we’ll get private money and a little bit of government money and we’ll clean it up."
[…] The U.S. government has provided $9 million since 2007 to assist with Agent Orange in Vietnam. Another $12 million would be allocated as part of a bill being debated by Congress. A State Department official told reporters during a visit to Hanoi earlier this month that the U.S. hopes to find additional funding for more dioxin-related projects.
Kyrgyzstan
6) Value to Big Powers May Not Be Enough to Save Kyrgyzstan
Ellen Barry, New York Times, June 18, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/19/world/asia/19memo.html
Moscow – A year and a half ago, the world’s great powers were fighting like polecats over Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked stretch of mountains in the heart of Central Asia.
The United States was ferociously holding on to the Manas Air Base, a transit hub considered crucial to NATO efforts in Afghanistan. Russia was so jealous of its traditional dominance in the region that it promised the Kyrgyz president $2.15 billion in aid the day he announced he was closing Manas. With the bidding war that followed, Kyrgyzstan could be forgiven for seeing itself as a global player.
And yet for the past week, as spasms of violence threatened to break Kyrgyzstan apart, its citizens saw their hopes for an international intervention flicker and die. With each day it has become clearer that none of Kyrgyzstan’s powerful allies – most pointedly, its former overlords in Moscow – were prepared to get involved in a quagmire.
Russia did send in several hundred paratroopers, but only to defend its air base at Kant. For the most part, the powers have evacuated their citizens, apparently content to wait for the conflict to burn itself out.
The calculus was a pragmatic one, made "without the smallest thought to the moral side of the question," said Aleksei V. Vlasov, an expert in the politics of post-Soviet countries at Moscow State University. "We use the phrase ‘collective responsibility,’ but in fact this is a case of collective irresponsibility," he added. "While they were fighting about whatever – about bases, about Afghanistan – they forgot that in the south of Kyrgyzstan there was extreme danger. The city was flammable. All they needed to do was throw a match on it."
Kyrgyzstan may have unraveled anyway, but competition between Moscow and Washington certainly sped the process.
To lock in its claim on the base after the threat of expulsion, the United States offered President Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev $110 million to back out of his agreement with Russia, which had already paid him $450 million. Congratulating itself on its victory, Washington raised the stakes by announcing the construction of several military training facilities in Kyrgyzstan, including one in the south, which further irritated Moscow.
This spring, the Kremlin won back its lost ground, employing a range of soft-power tactics to undermine Mr. Bakiyev’s government. Mr. Bakiyev was ousted by a coalition of opposition leaders in April, and conditions in Kyrgyzstan’s south – still loyal to the old government – hurtled toward disaster.
"Let’s be honest, Kyrgyzstan is turning into a collapsing state, or at least part of it is, and what was partially responsible is this geopolitical tug-of-war we had," said Alexander A. Cooley, who included Manas in a recent book about the politics of military bases. "In our attempts to secure these levers of influence and support the governing regime, we destabilized these state institutions. We are part of that dynamic."
Last week, as pillars of smoke rose off Osh and Jalalabad, citizens begged for third-party peacekeepers to replace local forces they suspected of having taken part in the violence.
Roza Otunbayeva, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s interim government, asked Moscow for peacekeepers, and when that request was denied, for troops to protect strategic sites like power plants and reservoirs. She asked Washington to contribute armored vehicles from the base at Manas, which she said would be used to transport the dead and wounded, she told the Russian newspaper Kommersant.
So far, Moscow and Washington have responded mostly with humanitarian aid pledges – late on Friday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Ms. Otunbayeva’s request was still under consideration.
The United States, overextended in Afghanistan and Iraq, has neither the appetite nor the motive for a new commitment.
[…]
Iran
7) Turkey Offers U.S. A Diplomatic Channel To Iran
Michele Kelemen, NPR, June 18, 2010
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127931787
The U.S. and European Union are moving to tighten the financial noose around Iran to pressure it to curb its nuclear ambitions. They are calling on all countries – including those that voted against sanctions in the U.N. Security Council earlier this month – to do the same.
One of those no votes came from Turkey, which disapproves of what it calls "coercive diplomacy." Turkey says it is working behind the scenes, with U.S. encouragement, to keep diplomatic options alive in relations between Iran and the West.
Ibrahim Kalin, an adviser to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says his country agrees with the U.S. and Europe on the ultimate goal – to prevent Iran from having a nuclear bomb. "We don’t disagree in substance; we disagree in style," he told reporters at the Turkish Embassy in Washington this week.
[…] Kalin, who was in Washington with lawmakers from Turkey’s ruling AK party, says his country wants to see Iran go ahead with the fuel swap.
He says Iranians "can easily say we are out of this deal" and "there is no use in talking to the Americans" after the sanctions. However, Kalin says Turkey is encouraging Iran to stay at the table, and "that is a message we are getting from the U.S. administration also."
State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley says the Tehran research reactor deal "has to be adjusted" to reflect Iranian activity over the past nine months. He says Iran has nearly doubled its enriched uranium supply.
If the fuel-swap deal is improved, it could be a step toward the broader discussions that the U.S. and its partners are seeking, Crowley says, pointing out that this is where Turkey might fit in. "We are encouraging Turkey to continue to tell Iran that there is an opportunity for diplomacy and dialogue and we will see how Iran responds," he says.
Iraq
8) Iraq ill-equipped to cope with an epidemic of mental illness
Leila Fadel, Washington Post, Friday, June 18, 2010; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/17/AR2010061706034.html
Asmaa Shaker sits on a leopard-print blanket in a Baghdad psychiatric hospital, her eyes heavy. The drugs have kicked in now, the fear has subsided, and she can sleep.
Without medication, she rarely sleeps. Three times in five years, her home was damaged in bombings, the most recent just two weeks ago. Her husband’s leg was ripped from his body, her 12-year-old son turns yellow and shakes at the thought of leaving the house, the family is thousands of dollars in debt, and she lives with a constant fear. "The pressure is too great," she said at Ibn Rushd, a central Baghdad psychiatric hospital. "I found my neighbors on the ground, children dead on the ground. I’m scared. I’m very scared."
Even as a pullback of American troops marks a winding down of the war, more and more Iraqis are seeking medical treatment for trauma-induced mental illnesses, and the medical community is unable to keep up.
Across Iraq, 100 psychiatrists are available to serve a population of about 30 million people, Iraq’s psychiatric association says. Many people self-medicate, and prescription drug abuse is now the number one substance abuse problem in Iraq. The most abused drug is called Artane, known generically as trihexyphenidyl but referred to in Iraq as the "pill of courage," with a marked sedative effect.
At the country’s largest and only long-term mental health institution, Al-Rashad, this year has seen a 10 percent increase in patients, and doctors say they’ve had to turn people away from the government-funded facility because of crowding.
[…]
Israel/Palestine
9) Israel Could Benefit From Hamas
Ian S. Lustick, Forbes, 06.17.10
http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/17/israel-hamas-middle-east-politics-opinions-contributors-ian-s-lustick.html
[Lustick is Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Unsettled States, Disputed Lands: Britain and Ireland, France and Algeria, Israel and the West Bank/Gaza.]
The Israeli government says it’s in a death struggle with Hamas, cast as a terrorist movement affiliated with al-Qaida and threatening the entire Western world. But current Israeli propaganda to the contrary, Hamas is not al-Qaida. Hamas has never carried out violent attacks outside of historical Palestine.
The West is out to rid the world of al-Qaida. While we can easily imagine a world without al-Qaida, we cannot imagine a Middle East without the kind of massively supported politicized Islam that Hamas represents in Palestine. A more difficult question is whether we can imagine the Middle East without Israel. Among Middle Easterners, the answer to that question is, increasingly, yes.
Ironically, Israel’s best hope for living with political Islam is the kind of modus vivendi that Egypt, Jordan and other secular Arab regimes have reached with their local versions of Hamas.
[…] To an extent, Islamists inside Israel proper may offer a model for a larger Israeli relationship with political Islam. Muslim citizens of Israel, including those active in the Islamic movement, act as law-abiding, though annoying participants in Israeli democracy. They challenge the ideological and cultural sacred cows of statist Zionism, but pose that challenge without terrorism and with a long time frame. Despite recent efforts to restrict political expression by Israeli citizens, the government’s willingness to go toe to toe with Islam in the domestic political arena is a far cry from decades of dominating millions of effectively stateless West Bank and Gaza Palestinians who have no political access to the Israeli political arena.
As in the Arab countries, the force of Islamism in these territories has sidelined nationalist movements whose incompetence, corruption and ties to the West destroyed their political standing. While heavily subsidized Palestinian secularists maintain a precarious hold on the West Bank, at least as long as free elections are not held, in Gaza the Islamists are having the same success they have had in Lebanon and Turkey, and would have in Jordan, Egypt, and elsewhere, were honest elections permitted.
Having left Gaza without an agreement to make it part of a viable Palestinian state, and having corrupted and humiliated what was left of the Palestinian nationalist movement, Israel lost the best opportunities it had to domesticate Hamas as a loyal opposition. It also lost the kind of direct and continuous access required to enforce police-state repression on mass-based Islamists. In Gaza Hamas is prospering despite Israel’s blockade and the decimation of its leadership. Now that Egypt is changing its policies toward Gaza, and with the entire world ranged against the blockade, Israel is finding that Gaza ghettoization is backfiring, deepening its own isolation from the world community.
Israel still does have another option. In a variety of Sunni Arab countries the Muslim Brothers and affiliated groups (Hamas is in this category) have agreed to compete peacefully in the social, cultural and ideological spheres while foregoing direct military or political attacks on the secular governments. In effect Hamas has offered Israel the equivalent-a generation long "hudna" (armistice) during which a Muslim Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza would exist alongside of a Jewish State in Israel. This arrangement, modeled on those existing in Egypt, Jordan and elsewhere, would not involve any "end of the conflict" agreements, any recognition of the righteousness of the other, or any elaborate arrangements for cooperation and mutual advantage. Instead, time and non-violent competition would determine if and how the conflict would be continued after two or three decades and whose attachments to land and belief would prevail.
This will not be an easy competition for Israel to win, but in the Middle East as it is, and as it will be, that is the best opportunity it will get. The alternative is an endless competition in brutality that Jews will definitely lose, not because their ethics are stronger, but because more Jews than Arabs have foreign passports.
10) Does Israel suffer from ‘Iranophobia’?
Some Israelis argue that an ‘Iranophobia’ holds unnecessary sway over Israeli thinking about a wide range of problems, from rearming of Hezbollah to the ‘terrorist’ activists aboard the Gaza flotilla. Should Israel see less of a threat in Iran?
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor, June 18, 2010
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0618/Does-Israel-suffer-from-Iranophobia
Tel Aviv – Barely a day goes by without a strident warning from a top Israeli official, politician, or general about the nature of the "threat" Iran poses to the Jewish state. It’s unprecedented. Or it’s imminent. Or it’s existential. And it is declared to be behind every Israeli problem, from the rearming of Hezbollah in Lebanon to the "terrorist" humanitarian activists aboard the Gaza flotilla.
How powerful is that anti-Iran mindset in Israel? How is fear of an Iranian nuclear weapon heightened by the blasts of anti-Israel invective from the neoconservative government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran?
"We are making them stronger than they are," says David Menashri, the director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. "To refer to Iran as an ‘existential threat’ – I refuse to use this term – you give Iran greater credit than they deserve…. What signal does it send to our own people, that the day Iran should have nuclear weapons you should leave the country, because your existence is threatened?"
[…]
‘Yemen
11) U.S. reconsiders Guantanamo case; review may force officials to ease ban on transferring detainees to Yemen
Peter Finn, Washington Post, Friday, June 18, 2010; 2:58 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061803531.html
The Obama administration is considering partially lifting its suspension of all transfers of Guantanamo Bay detainees to Yemen, officials said, following a federal court ruling that found "overwhelming" evidence to support a Yemeni’s claim that he has been unlawfully detained by the United States for more than eight years.
The case of Mohammed Odaini has become so pressing that senior administration officials, including the secretaries of defense and state, or their deputies, will discuss it next week. A White House official stressed that any decision "should not be viewed as a reflection of a broader policy for other Yemeni detainees."
"What isn’t being considered is lifting, in a blanket fashion, the moratorium on detainee transfers to Yemen," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because deliberations are ongoing.
The administration, though, may come under further pressure to quickly release Yemenis besides Odaini. As many as 20 more Yemenis could be ordered released by the courts for lack of evidence to justify their continued detention, a second administration official estimated.
The official said the government may have to periodically carve out an exception to its ban. "There is a group of Yemenis who are going to win their habeas cases," the official said. "Some of them will not be as clear as this case, but some will be, and that poses a real dilemma."
Odaini was a 17-year-old student at a religious institution in Faisalabad, Pakistan, in March 2002 when he accepted an invitation to spend the evening at a nearby guesthouse that he had never before visited. He ended up spending the night, and after Pakistani authorities raided the house overnight, they turned Odaini and a number of other men over to the United States.
The government argued "vehemently" that Odaini’s presence in the guesthouse demonstrated that he was part of "the al-Qaeda affiliated network of man named Abu Zubaydah," according to the court opinion. But a federal judge was unconvinced.
"The evidence before the court shows that holding Odaini in custody at such great cost to him has done nothing to make the United States more secure," wrote U.S. District Court Judge Henry H. Kennedy Jr., ordering Odaini’s release in an opinion that was unclassified this month. "There is no evidence that Odaini has any connection to al Qaeda. . . . The court therefore emphatically concludes that Odaini’s motion must be granted."
In January, following the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound plane traveling by a Nigerian suspect who received training in Yemen, President Obama suspended all transfers of detainees to Yemen. A month earlier, Republicans had strenuously objected to the repatriation of six Yemeni detainees.
An interagency task force Obama created has cleared 29 Yemenis for repatriation and conditionally cleared another 30 if security conditions in Yemen improve. Most are likely to stay at Guantanamo for some time. But Odaini’s case presents a particular challenge to the administration, and those on Capitol Hill who are opposed to any transfers to Yemen.
"This is a bad case to argue. There is nothing there. The bottom line is: We don’t have anything on this kid," said the administration official. "The judge wants a progress report by June 25th. We have to be able to report something other than we are thinking about it."
In previous cases where Yemenis have been ordered released, the government has appealed. But the administration official said it would be "unconscionable" to appeal in this case.
[…] There are about 90 Yemenis held at Guantanamo Bay, the largest single group by nationality among the 181 detainees held at the military detention center.
[…] Advocates for some of the Yemeni detainees say they do not pose a security risk. Asked if there were other cases as stark as Odaini’s, his lawyer, Remes, said he was "certain of it."
"Why the government fights so tenaciously to keep men such as Mr. Odaini in prison unless and until the government sees fit to release them is the great mystery of this litigation, especially since President Obama took office," said Remes, who represents 14 Yemenis held at Guantanamo Bay. "They seem unable to admit they’ve ever made a mistake."
Colombia
12) Far Worse Than Watergate: Report Reveals Widening Scandal Regarding Intelligence Agency as New Government Takes Office in Colombia
Kelly Nicholls, Lisa Haugaard, Abigail Poe, and Gimena Sanchez, Huffington Post, June 18, 2010
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-nicholls/far-worse-than-watergate_b_617629.html
[the report is here: http://bit.ly/cNuqBF – JFP]
As Colombians prepare to elect a new president on Sunday, a new report reveals the shocking details of the Colombian intelligence agency’s Watergate-like scandal, which went well beyond illegally spying on key players in the country’s democracy. The Department of Administrative Security (DAS), Colombia’s intelligence agency, actually orchestrated active efforts to sabotage the activities of Colombian judges, journalists, human rights defenders, international organizations and political opponents.
The authors of Far Worse than Watergate, the U.S. Office on Colombia, the Latin America Working Group Education Fund, the Center for International Policy and the Washington Office on Latin America, reviewed hundreds of pages of documents from the Colombian Attorney General and other sources, revealing how the DAS developed elaborate defamation campaigns – with titles like "Operation Halloween"- to destabilize NGOs, create divisions within opposition movements, fabricate false ties to guerrilla groups to ruin defenders’ reputations, and undermine the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the DAS was even behind grotesque threats issued to a human rights defender and a journalist – and their daughters.
The scandal highlights the need to clean up Colombian intelligence operations. To maintain credibility, Colombia’s next president – to be elected on June 20th – will have to address the dirty tricks, death threats and sabotage efforts against numerous defenders of democracy in Colombia. The new president should also take steps to remove the capacity of the President and his advisors to order intelligence operations without safeguards and oversight. In order to avoid repeat offenses and a politicization of intelligence, the Colombian Congress should be encouraged to exert oversight. The Colombian government must demonstrate that security does not come at the cost of fundamental freedoms.
But U.S. policymakers have cause for concern as well. Did the United States fund these illegal efforts, and in so doing endanger important human rights proponents and political actors? According to U.S. Ambassador to Colombia William Brownfield, the United States has supplied surveillance equipment to the DAS, although he has claimed it was not used for illegal purposes. But we can not rest assured. During the trial of former DAS director Jorge Noguera, a detective testified that he had been part of a U.S.-funded special unit that apparently tracked union activities. The U.S. Congress appropriately responded to this Watergate-like scandal by including a prohibition of funding for the DAS in the FY2010 foreign operations bill. This is a vital first step. But the same prohibition must be included in defense and intelligence appropriation bills. Congress must investigate whether or not U.S. training and equipment were used for the sinister purpose of undermining the work of legitimate political actors. And most importantly, the U.S. government must establish guarantees to ensure that U.S. taxpayer dollars are never used for criminal ends.
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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming US foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the majority of Americans.